Heat playoff time set. And Miami gets clarity on its potential two first-round picks

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The Heat on Sunday evening learned the tipoff time for its 9-10 play-in game at Chicago on Wednesday; the game will start at 7:30 p.m. Eastern and will be televised exclusively on ESPN.

Meanwhile, the Heat also Sunday received a bit of clarity on its two potential first-round picks in June’s draft – its own and another that was traded from Golden State.

Miami could end up with the 11th overall pick (its own) if it misses the playoffs and also stands to own the 18th, 19th or 20th pick from the Warriors.

Miami would keep its own first round pick if it fails to advance out of the play-in round.

If the Heat loses Wednesday in Chicago – or wins in Chicago but then loses a second play-in game Friday against the loser of the Atlanta-Orlando play-in game — then Miami would keep its first-round pick in June and Oklahoma City would get Miami’s first-round pick in 2026. If the Heat wins two play-in games, OKC would get Miami’s first-round pick in 2025 and the Heat would keep its pick in 2026.

Miami’s season would end with a loss on Wednesday. The Heat needs to win two play-in games to advance to play Cleveland in the playoffs.

With Sunday’s loss to Washington, the Heat finished with the NBA’s 11th worst record. Because no other team finished 37-45 besides Miami, there will be no random drawing necessary to break a tie.

The Heat will enter the May 12 NBA Draft lottery with a 2 percent chance of landing the top pick (who will assuredly be Duke forward Cooper Flagg) and a 9.4 percent chance of landing a top four pick.

The lottery determines the order of the top four picks, with teams then picking in inverse order of record.

So if Miami misses the playoffs, the Heat would pick either first, second, third or fourth, 11th (the most likely scenario) or 12th if a lottery team with a better record than Miami moves into the top four of the lottery. There’s a less than one percent chance that the pick could fall to 13th or 14th.

The 11th overall pick has produced just three All Stars this century: Klay Thompson, Domantas Sabonis and MVP candidate Shae Gilgeous-Alexander. Impressive Chicago rookie Matas Buzelis was the 11th pick in last year’s draft.

If Phoenix had beaten Sacramento on Sunday, Miami would have moved into a tie for the 10th worst record and could have emerged with a slightly better chance of a top four pick. But the Kings won.

As for the Warriors pick, Golden State’s overtime loss at home to the Clippers dropped the Warriors to the seventh seed, meaning they will need to go through the play-in round to qualify for the playoffs.

Golden State will play host to Memphis on Tuesday in the 7-8 play-in game, with the winner advancing to play Houston in the playoffs. The loser of that game will play the Sacramento-Dallas winner on Friday to advance to play Oklahoma City in the playoffs.

The Warriors, Memphis and Milwaukee all finished 48-34, and a random drawing in the days ahead will determine which of those picks is 18th, 19th and 20th.

Miami will get Golden State’s pick in June as long it falls between 11 and 30.

If the Warriors lose two play-in games and thus fail to make the playoffs, their pick would move up to 14th and would still be sent to the Heat, unless the Warriors land a top-four pick in the lottery, in which case Golden State would keep the pick.

If the Warriors somehow miss the playoffs and get a top four pick in the lottery, Miami would get Golden State’s first-rounder in 2026 if it falls between 11 and 30. If the Warriors surprisingly pick in the top 10 next year, too, Miami would get the Warriors’ first-rounder in 2027 regardless of where it falls.

Jimmy Butler, who helped the Warriors turn around their season after his February trade from the Heat, limped in the final seconds of Sunday’s game after his lower leg collided with Clipper forward Kawhi Leonard’s.

The Heat would have no first-round pick at all only if Miami makes the playoffs and if the Warriors miss the playoffs and get a top four pick in the lottery.

 

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