After an eventful Sunday around the NBA, the Miami Heat gained some clarity on where two potential first-round picks in June’s draft could land – their own, and one from the Golden State Warriors.
The Heat will play the Chicago Bulls in the 9-10 play-in game on Wednesday. The game will tip at 7:30 pm ET and be televised on ESPN.
What’s next for the Heat’s own pick?
If the Heat lose Wednesday, then they will miss the playoffs and keep their pick, and owe their unprotected 2026 pick to the Thunder. Their 2025 pick will be entered into the NBA draft lottery with the 11th-best odds.
If the Heat win Wednesday and lose the second play-in game on Friday to either the Hawks or Magic, then they would also keep their pick with the 11th-best odds.
If the Heat win Wednesday and Friday and advance to the playoffs, then the Thunder would get their first-round pick in 2025, and the Heat would keep their pick in 2026.
Should they fail to make the playoffs, the Heat will enter the May 12 NBA draft lottery with a 2% chance of landing the top overall pick and a 9.4% chance of climbing into the top four. (The lottery determines the order of the top four picks, with teams then picking in inverse order of record.)
What about Golden State’s pick?
The Heat own Golden State’s top-10 protected 2025 pick as part of the Jimmy Butler trade. They will get the pick as long as it falls between 11 and 30.
The Warriors, Grizzlies and Bucks all finished 48-34, so a random drawing will determine where their picks land between 18-20.
The Warriors lost to the Clippers on Sunday, dropping them to the seventh seed in the play-in tournament in the West. The Warriors will have two chances to win one game and advance to the playoffs.
If the Warriors beat the Grizzlies at home on Tuesday, they will advance to the playoffs as the No. 7 seed and face the Rockets in the first round.
If the Warriors lose to the Grizzlies, they will be the loser of the 9-10 game between the Kings and Mavericks for a chance to advance to the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.
If the Warriors lose both play-in games and fail to make the playoffs, their pick would move up to 14th and be entered into the lottery. The Heat would still keep the pick unless it lands in the top four, in which case the Warriors would keep their pick.
In that scenario, the Heat would get Golden State’s top-10 protected first in 2026.
What are the most extreme scenarios?
The Heat would have no first-round picks if they make the playoffs and the Warriors miss the playoffs and see their pick land in the top four in the lottery.
But the Heat could also end up with two picks in the top 14 if both them and the Warriors miss the playoffs. There’s a lucky scenario in which the Heat are choosing in the top four with their own pick and at 14 with Golden State’s pick.
