Is a Nuggets-Celtics NBA Finals as inevitable as we’ve long hoped?

Is a Nuggets-Celtics NBA Finals as inevitable as we've long hoped? - The  Athletic

The reigning champion Boston Celtics and the previously crowned champion Denver Nuggets are both figuring out how to obliterate parity in the NBA.

To be honest, I’m with this idea. I hate parity when it comes to the NBA. It’s the ugly, creepy cousin of “everybody gets a trophy.” Winning an NBA title is supposed to be difficult, and the idea that a system would be set up to decrease hardships for a team trying to win the Larry O’Brien trophy angers me. The NBA is at its best when dynasties are built and then torn down by the scrambling competition. It’s what we thought the Nuggets were going to do a year ago, and it’s what we assume the Celtics are in position to accomplish now.

Instead, we’ve had six different champions in the last six postseasons, and teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers, Oklahoma City Thunder, New York Knicks, Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks are all trying to make sure that nonsense keeps happening. You don’t need to win three titles in a row to be a dynasty, but you should be in the mix and winning championships often enough. That’s what the Celtics and Nuggets are attempting to establish. Denver is looking to grab its second title in three years as Boston eyes becoming the first back-to-back champions since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018.

When they played in Boston on Sunday, the Celtics and Nuggets proved why a showdown between these two franchises would make for an incredible NBA Finals. Boston took the 110-103 victory over Denver with a well-balanced attack. The Celtics knocked down their 3-pointers, got to the free-throw line and relied on clutch plays from their role players. The Nuggets took a long time to get into the game but eventually came alive with Jamal Murray getting hot in the second half. It was too little too late for Denver, but both teams showed exactly what so many of us thought we were getting last year.

GO DEEPER Celtics build big lead, hold off Nuggets for 110-103 winThis time last season, we had a storm brewing in the NBA. No, this isn’t some weak attempt at a joke about the Thunder being named one level above the Oklahoma City Overcast. The then-defending NBA champion Nuggets were looking great. They didn’t have the best record in the NBA, but Nikola Jokić was en route to his third MVP in four seasons, and Denver as a whole was playing top-level basketball.

The Nuggets were battling the Thunder and Timberwolves for the No. 1 seed in the West. Their offense wasn’t quite as potent as we were used to seeing, but it was still in the top 10. More importantly, their defense was also in the top 10. The Nuggets appeared to be pretty in-tune with the circadian rhythms of a title pursuit in the regular season. Even with how good the rest of the West looked, we all knew the Nuggets were going to win the conference with the best player in the world playing his best basketball. They just needed a worthy dance partner to challenge them.

That’s where the Celtics came into play. They hadn’t yet figured out how to win a championship but were heavily knocking on the door — rattling the hinges with the rapping at the entrance. The Celtics were in the middle of one of the most dominant regular seasons in NBA history, and only some P(layoffs)TSD with Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat might have had a chance to knock them off their perch in the Eastern Conference. In other words, they didn’t have any real challengers ahead of them. The collision course between the Nuggets and Celtics felt as imminent as death, taxes and Dion Waiters calling for the ball even when he isn’t open. We were all ready for the matchup and its accompanying tropes for each team:

“How are the Celtics going to contain Jokić?”

“Could the Nuggets keep up with the Celtics’ 3-point shooting?”

“Can Jamal Murray score on Jrue Holiday?”

“How would Jayson Tatum score on Aaron Gordon?”

“Do the Nuggets have a bench? Does Jaylen Brown have a left hand? What metaphors will Joe Mazzulla conjure up against Michael Malone?”

And then … it didn’t happen. The Celtics did their part by cruising through the Eastern Conference. In terms of dominance, their path to the NBA Finals resembled the Nuggets’ march through the West en route to the 2023 title. Boston was so dominant in its trouncing of the East that people dismissed how challenging that road turned out to be.

But not all roads to the title are paved with glass shards, rusty nails or random shrapnel capable of popping your tires.

The Celtics strolled to the championship round, only the Nuggets weren’t waiting for them as expected. It was the Dallas Mavericks. The Nuggets were inexplicably ousted in the second round by the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the dream showdown of the Celtics and Nuggets had evaporated. While the Mavericks had a compelling story and put up a decent fight in the NBA Finals, it was not the epic, possibly all-time great showdown we promised ourselves.

With the final stretch of this season underway, the two most recent NBA champions have a great chance at winning their respective conferences. The Celtics (43-18) have the second-best record in the East, and they have a top-five ranking in both offense and defense. Maybe they’re not quite as potent as what we saw a year ago, but they’re not far from it. They’ve also endured a decent number of injuries this season, showing they have another level they can reach. It’s allowed their depth to get rounded out and experience some pretty important reps in the regular season.

The Nuggets (39-22) have the third-best record in the West. Denver’s defense is league average, but its offensive rating is up to second in the NBA. We’ve seen great strides with the Nuggets’ bench depth and embracing of their youth. They’ve been on a tear since an embarrassing loss to the Washington Wizards on Dec. 7. Even losing three of their last five games doesn’t even register as a concern.

The Nuggets have had their fair share of injuries to key players this season, but they’ve found a rhythm on the court that’s allowed them to withstand absences.

Nonetheless, the contrast in styles still makes this potential matchup beyond enticing. In boxing, they say that styles make the fights. These are two of the most impressive offenses in the league — except they still have higher levels and standards they can reach, not to mention they’re so different from each other. Denver has its ball movement running through Jokić with intricate cuts and timing thrown into the mix. The Celtics’ ball movement is based on breaking down defenders off the dribble. From there, a defense chaotically scrambles in rotation to cover shooters looking for the next great shot attempt.

We saw their contrast in styles in Sunday’s game. In the first half, the Nuggets tried to catch up to the Celtics’ style. They were rushing to take 3-pointers because that’s what Boston forces you to do. The Celtics trick you into thinking you need to match them shot for shot, and few teams (if any) have that kind of shooting depth on their roster. The Celtics were daring Russell Westbrook and Christian Braun to beat them. Braun found his rhythm in the first half, and Westbrook did not. The defending champions wanted to force the ball out of Jokić’s hands as much as possible, but not in a way that allowed him to easily set up his teammates. And not having Aaron Gordon available meant that Westbrook took a lot of his spots in the corner or in the dunker’s spot, which isn’t quite as effective for the 36-year-old guard. Boston tried to keep the pace slower than what Denver wants and maintain active hands to force turnovers.

In the second half, we saw more of what the Nuggets want to do. They increased the pace, limited 3-pointers for the Celtics and got Murray going. The Celtics were missing Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday, so they weren’t exactly whole either. But they tried to take away what they could from both Murray and Jokić, funneling offensive opportunities to Westbrook, Braun and Michael Porter Jr. even further. That’s where the contrast in styles becomes such a fascinating cross-match for these two teams.

When healthy, the Celtics have big bodies to throw at Jokić, and active wings/guards to dig in to force turnovers or disrupt the flow of the offense. They want to be opportunistic in how they push the ball but mostly grind you down. When their 3-point attempts are hitting the way we often see, there simply aren’t enough possessions to try to make up for it. They don’t typically get to the free-throw line a lot, but they found that against Denver on Sunday. In having Derrick White, Holiday and Jaylen Brown to throw at Murray, they can create a constant stream of detractors to the Nuggets guard reaching his preferred locations to score from.

That is … if Jokić lets you take those away. He’s still the great equalizer with all of these strategies. His balance of when to attack and when to involve teammates is impossible to predict. It’s what makes him a riddle on the court. Big Honey gets to dictate how the game goes, and you can only hope to trick him into certain decisions throughout the matchup. Even those opportunities seem limited. The Celtics have to use their overwhelming perimeter attack to force the Nuggets to play a style they don’t like to play. They don’t take a lot of 3-pointers. Depending on where Jokić gets the ball, Denver plays inside-out or middle-out.

Seven games of this matchup wouldn’t be a chess match between Michael Malone and Joe Mazzulla; it would be an escape-room contest.

The Celtics’ biggest threat to getting back to the NBA Finals from the East is in Cleveland. The 50-10 Cavs got off to a noteworthy start but never really evened out. They’ve kept a mostly historic pace and maintained the best offense in the league. Cleveland even decided not to rest on its laurels by acquiring De’Andre Hunter from the Atlanta Hawks at the trade deadline. The Cavs are deep and willing to show they can keep up with the Celtics on the perimeter. We saw just how confident and dangerous they are Friday night, when the Celtics got out to a 25-3 lead against the Cavs, only to lose 123-116. The Cavs have legitimate offensive and defensive threats to match what Boston wants to do, but they don’t have the experience Boston does. Everybody else in the East is too flawed to assume a healthy Boston team can be easily cut down.

Out West, the Nuggets’ most viable threat isn’t even the Oklahoma City Thunder (49-11) and their own historic pace. While the Thunder are great and dominating in a way we’ve never seen, the deep field in the West is Denver’s biggest problem. There are a lot of teams in the West that will be in position to take the conference. As Denver learned last season, potentially overlooking or underestimating an opponent could end its season. The Thunder saw the Timberwolves’ size disrupt Denver’s quest to repeat, so they added Isaiah Hartenstein. Dallas has also added size (but lost a pretty good guard in the process). And the Warriors are hoping Steph Curry paired with Jimmy Butler can burn down a Denver team again, like the Warriors did back in 2013 and on the way to the 2022 title.

If we want to see the best basketball with top star power, a Nuggets-Celtics NBA Finals matchup would be the best-case scenario for the league. Maybe it won’t provide the top narratives, even with these two teams winning the most recent championships, nor is it in line with the parity movement by the league. But from a basketball-quality perspective, it could be as good as it gets.

Of course, there is no guarantee of either team getting to the championship round. We won’t make that same mistake again of prematurely assuming about the near future. Maybe that storm brewing will result in the Thunder advancing deep in the postseason. Or maybe it’s Jokić on a collision course with trying to take down a full Celtics rotation of great players and shooters mostly by himself. Maybe he’s the Andre the Giant of the NBA world, fighting off the smaller competition and deciding who gets to taste success and who has an IV of failure hooked up to them instead. A Celtics-Nuggets NBA Finals would more than deliver. We just have no idea if it will be gifted to us.

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