The Duncan Robinson effect is real for the Heat. Also, Jaquez and Wiggins doubtful vs. Knicks

Add NBA start to Duncan Robinson's unlikely basketball journey - mlive.com

Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra often emphasizes the importance of the team’s key performance indicators.

“It’s about learning how to win and learning how to do it consistently,” Spoelstra said recently. “Part of that process is understanding what are the key indicators that lead to winning.”

Many of the Heat’s KPIs usually come on the defensive end. After all, the Heat enters Sunday night’s matchup against the New York Knicks at Kaseya Center with a 20-7 record this season when allowing 110 or fewer points and an 8-23 record this season when allowing more than 110 points.

But there’s at least one KPI that’s connected to the Heat’s offense and it’s simple: Did three-point shooting forward Duncan Robinson score at at least 20 points?

Over the 67 games (including the postseason) that Robinson has scored at least 20 points in during his seven-year NBA career ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Knicks, the Heat holds an impressive 52-15 record.

“When Duncan is aggressive and being himself, I feel like our offense goes to another level,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said.

Between Robinson’s two-man game with starting center Bam Adebayo and Robinson serving as a three-point threat who opponents have to game plan for, there’s more space for the Heat’s offense to operate when Robinson is on the court and especially when Robinson is making a bunch of threes.

“I know there’s analytics to it now. But there are players where you just know they tilt the defense differently,” Spoelstra said. “Shooters, the catch-and-shoot guys, guys that come off screens. Duncan is one of those guys. He just is. That’s the reality. You can run those actions for other players and it’s not going to create quite the same reactions. And that’s from years of reputation of being deadly coming off screens.”

Herro added: “He’s really the guy who can create overreactions for the defense.”

Robinson, 30, has noticed those overreactions from opposing defenses become even more common over the years.

“When shots go in and sometimes even when they don’t just because of the scouting report and reputation, I can create some overreactions and hopefully help get guys some easy ones,” said Robinson, who entered Sunday with 30 starts in 55 appearances this season. “That’s generating offense, too. It’s not always just if the ball is going in or not. But sometimes I feel like I can help just us function on that end in other ways, too. So trying to be a complete player, more of a complete player and more of a threat than just shooting from three.”

Robinson’s improved passing has allowed him to better take advantage of those overreactions, as he averaged a career-high 2.8 assists per game last season and entered Sunday near that mark again this season with 2.7 assists per game.

“He’s really improved in all aspects,” Spoelstra said of Robinson, who is the franchise leader for the most career three-point makes by a Heat player. “He had two really big drives the other night. But that’s probably been going on for two years now, also the playmaking. He’s added a lot of passing. … But he’s been doing that now for a year and a half. So these things are not overnight things. It’s been steady improvement.”

The passing and playmaking is helpful, but the Heat is at its best when Robinson is making baskets. Just look at the Heat’s record when Robinson finishes a game with at least 20 points.

It remains to be seen if the Robinson effect will continue past this season, though.

Robinson can become a free agent this upcoming summer, as he has the right to terminate next season’s $19.9 million salary by June 29 and enter free agency. But the Heat also can make Robinson a free agent, as the team can waive him by July 8 to owe only $9.9 million of his $19.9 million salary for next season ($10 million in savings against the salary cap, luxury tax and aprons).

“He’s another guy who creates advantages, overreactions. That’s what Duncan brings,” Herro said. “Obviously, his shooting, the way he moves off the ball, he just makes everything so easy on everyone else. He really opens the floor for everyone.”

Strong first impression
Guard Davion Mitchell has been with the Heat for less than a month in the wake of the Jimmy Butler trade, but he has already made a strong impression on his new coaches and teammates.

“He’s one of the hardest workers that I’ve played with,” Herro said Friday of Mitchell. “Just seeing since he’s been here, how much time he puts into his craft every single day. He’s going to be right back at it again tomorrow morning. When you see guys like that, you trust it and good things tend to happen. He puts the work in and I’m going to ride with him.”

Mitchell entered Sunday averaging 10 points, 1.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 53.6 percent from the field and 14 of 28 (50 percent) from three-point range in eight appearances (all starts) since he was traded to Miami.

“We want to encourage him to continue to be more aggressive,” Spoelstra said of Mitchell. “I think he still can be a guy who can generate some easy opportunities when he touches the paint. He’s a very willing passer, he wants to get guys involved, he wants to get our main guys the ball almost to a fault. We’ll clean that all up. But I like his game when he’s assertive because he has the right intentions to move the ball.”

Injury report
The Heat listed Jaime Jaquez Jr. (sprained right ankle) and Andrew Wiggins (sprained right ankle) as doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Knicks.

The Heat has already ruled out Josh Christopher (G League), Keshad Johnson (G League), Nikola Jovic (broken right hand), Dru Smith (Achilles surgery) and Isaiah Stevens (G League) for the contest.

The Knicks listed Josh Hart (right knee effusion) and Mitchell Robinson (left ankle surgery) as probable for Sunday’s game in Miami.

The Knicks will be without Ariel Hukporti (left knee surgery), Kevin McCullarJr. (G League) and Jacob Toppin (G League) against the Heat.

The Heat closes its four-game homestand Monday against the Washington Wizards (7:30 p.m., FanDuel Sports Network Sun) on the second night of a back-to-back set after taking on the Knicks on Sunday night.

 

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