Yes, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes will be the most important players on the field Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. Obviously.
But the fate of the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will depend on which of the NFL’s top two quarterbacks gets more help inside Arrowhead Stadium.
It’ll mark the fourth playoff meeting between Allen and Mahomes.
The Chiefs have won the first three, but the Bills averaged 28 points in those losses. So this year’s AFC title game will likely depend heavily on whether the Buffalo defense can finally slow down the K.C. offense when it matters most.
The Bills and Chiefs are scheduled for a 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday on CBS and Paramount Plus. Let’s check out which non-quarterbacks can do the most to swing the highly anticipated matchup in their team’s favor with a Super Bowl berth on the line.
Analyzing Key Supporting Cast Members in Bills vs. Chiefs
1. Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy
Worthy possesses 4.2 speed the Bills secondary will struggle to contain. The 2024 first-round pick provided a glimpse of his game-breaking ability in the teams’ first meeting (Week 11). He recorded four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown in a 30-21 Buffalo win.
The Bills have one of the league’s best cornerback groups. The trio of Christian Benford (who’s in concussion protocol), Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson is as good as it gets in terms of technique, leverage and scheme knowledge. None of them feature blazing speed, though.
You can bet Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is also trying to scheme ways for Worthy to get matched up with Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin. Although Hamlin has been a wonderful success story in his return to a starting role, he’s a major liability in coverage as one of the NFL’s slowest full-time players.
So the Bills will need to get creative to keep Worthy from breaking the game wide open. Head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich opted for a lot more man coverage in last week’s win over the Baltimore Ravens. Expect a return to more zone looks against the Chiefs.
On the flip side, look for Kansas City to get Worthy involved early. That could be quick screen throws to the outside or using motion to get him involved in the run game. He should get at least eight touches Sunday given the matchup nightmare he creates for Buffalo.
2. Bills EDGE Von Miller
Miller needs to turn back the clock for a couple games if the Bills are going to capture the franchise’s first Super Bowl title. We discussed his potential impact at length earlier this week. Mahomes needs to feel his presence consistently or it’ll be tough for the Buffalo defense to hold up.
The Bills have struggled all season to get consistent pressure on the opposing quarterback. They finished tied for 18th in the NFL with 39 sacks during the regular season. A lot of the onus to rectify that problem falls on Miller’s shoulders.
That’s largely because the future Hall of Famer isn’t expected to do anything else. Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa are also expected to make an impact against the run. They even drop into coverage on some more exotic defensive looks.
Meanwhile, Miller saw a 33 percent snap share this season. The Denver Broncos legend only comes on the field in obvious passing situations. It creates a scenario where he becomes a major liability if he’s not generating pressure since his other involvement is minuscule.
The eight-time Pro Bowler did record a sack of Mahomes in the first meeting, though. That’s a promising sign for the Bills, who’ve watched the Chiefs quarterback dissect their secondary with ease from a clean pocket far too often in those prior postseason meetings.
3. Bills DT Ed Oliver
Buffalo’s defense operates on a completely different level when Oliver is playing his best football. Unfortunately for the Bills, the sixth-year defensive tackle is one of the NFL’s most inconsistent players, going from game-wrecker to invisible in the blink of an eye.
The Bills can’t afford for the Kansas City offense to become two dimensional on Sunday. They’re going to have enough trouble slowing down Mahomes, Worthy, Travis Kelce and Co. in the passing game, so they can’t allow the running back tandem of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt to find running lanes too.
Last week, the Houston Texans held the Chiefs to 50 rushing yards on 22 carries (2.3 YPC), which allowed them to remain competitive (23-14 K.C.) despite an injury-depleted roster. Buffalo needs a similar performance from its run-stuffers in the AFC Championship Game.
That starts with Oliver, who’s been mostly quiet through two playoff games. He’s tallied just three total tackles, including one for a loss, through 75 snaps in wins over the Broncos and Ravens. To his credit, he did play better against Baltimore after making virtually no impact versus Denver.
The good news for Buffalo is it’s reached this stage without peak Oliver. If he can flip the switch and find his top gear for the remainder of the team’s playoff run, the Bills’ chances of beating the Chiefs and the NFC champion will increase exponentially. He’s a true difference-maker when fully engaged.
4. Chiefs EDGE George Karlaftis
Karlaftis led Kansas City with eight sacks during the regular season. He’s also coming off a monster showing against the Texans, racking up five total tackles and three sacks in last week’s win. That’s not really why he makes the list, however.
The Bills offense has found success despite the offseason departure of their top two targets, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, because of balance. They utilize sets with six offensive linemen regularly, and they typically attack one specific area of the defensive line over and over.
This week, that’ll likely be Karlaftis’ side of the field. The defensive end received a lackluster 56.6 run defense grade from Pro Football Focus. The best way for Buffalo to neutralize his pass-rushing prowess is target him on the ground. Wear him down early so he doesn’t have much juice in the fourth quarter.
If Karlaftis can have a standout performance against the run, the Bills offense will become a lot more limited. Running in the other direction will be tough given the presence of Chris Jones, one of the NFL’s most dominant interior linemen.
Ultimately, Karlaftis can absolutely still play a key role by keeping Allen in the pocket and potentially adding another sack or two to his highlight reel. His efforts stopping the run will likely be more important in the grand scheme of Sunday’s battle, though.
5. Bills RB Ty Johnson
This spot could have easily gone to another running back—Buffalo’s James Cook or the aforementioned Pacheco and Hunt from Kansas City—but Johnson has been the unsung hero of the Bills offense all season. Don’t be surprised if he takes on an unexpected starring role again.
Johnson led Bills running backs in yards per carry (5.2) during the regular season. The 27-year-old journeyman also averaged 15.8 yards per catch. His volume is modest, but when makes plays when called upon. A perfect example was his five catches for 114 yards in a win over the Detroit Lions.
Could a repeat performance be in the cards Sunday? Perhaps. The Ravens were able to stone-cold stop the Bills’ rushing attack for much of the second half last week. It was the first time in awhile a team did that. Surely the Chiefs are going to use that as a blueprint for the AFC title game.
As a result, Buffalo may have to move away from its traditionally balanced game plan earlier than usual. That’s where Johnson comes into play. The more Allen is forced to throw, the more the team’s No. 3 back will be on the field at Arrowhead.
For many teams, relying too much on your third-down back would create problems. For Buffalo, it’s become a strength. Johnson can be chain-moving asset, especially against man coverage, which Kansas City plays a lot. It sets the stage perfectly for him to steal the spotlight.