What Heat generally wants in Butler trade and 10 notes on the situation, Miami’s options

The latest Jimmy Butler suspension (this one for two games) came with a late Wednesday night public admonishment, with the Heat citing a “continued pattern of disregard of team rules, insubordinate conduct and conduct detrimental to the team, including missing today’s team flight to Milwaukee.”

Ten notes and points to consider, while the Heat continues efforts to ship him off before the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline: ▪ Here’s how the Heat generally views what it wants in return for Butler in what likely would be a multi-team trade: If Miami cannot land an All-Star player in return (highly unlikely), the Heat would be open to taking pretty good players with expiring contracts.

If the Heat is going to take back pretty good players with another year left on their contracts beyond this season, Miami wants an additional carrot or two — likely a draft pick. The Heat has no interest in taking back big money that extends beyond next season because it’s eyeing the summer of 2026 as the ideal time to have significant cap space, considering that could be the best free agent class in history, headlined by Luka Doncic. (Most of the top players likely will sign extensions before that and won’t get to free agency, but historically, some players like to be relocated, and Miami would be in prime position to pounce.) As it stands, Miami has only $85 million committed for the 2026-27 season, well under the $170.6 million projected cap that season.

Though acquiring expiring contracts in exchange for Butler would be ideal, the teams linked to Butler generally don’t have expiring contracts to offer. Phoenix can offer only Bradley Beal because it cannot aggregate salaries as a second-apron team. Beal’s contract — which has two years and $110 million remaining beyond this season, as well as a no-trade clause — isn’t palatable to the Heat. Milwaukee could not even bid for Butler without dumping salary to get under the second apron. If the Bucks can do that, a Bucks offer for Butler likely would center on a player, Khris Middleton, who is likely to exercise his $34 million player option for next season, and another, Bobby Portis, who could exercise a $13.4 million player option for 2025-26.

Golden State doesn’t have enough salary cap filler to complete a trade for Butler without including Andrew Wiggins’ contract, which includes salaries of $28.2 million and $30.2 million the next two seasons. Houston hasn’t been linked to Butler, and though Fred Van Vleet has a $44.9 million team option for next season, a Rockets source said the team values him. New Orleans, which has Brandon Ingram’s expiring contract, remains far out of playoff contention and hasn’t been linked to Butler.

▪ While Toronto has expiring contracts to help facilitate a deal, the value wouldn’t be close to Butler’s. Bruce Brown, due $23 million in the final year of his contract, remains a skilled defender, but he made just 31.7 percent of his three-point attempts last season. He has played in only 10 games this season because of offseason knee surgery. Toronto’s other significant expiring contract is Chris Boucher’s $10.8 million deal. The backup power forward is averaging 10.2 points and 4.4 rebounds and shooting 35.2 percent on threes.

▪ Though Marc Stein reported that the Bucks might have interest in Beal, Chris Haynes shot that down, reporting Wednesday night that Milwaukee won’t be pursuing Beal. If no team is willing to take Beal’s onerous contract, it’s difficult to see a Butler trade with Phoenix materializing. ▪ If the Bucks can get under the second apron by dumping salary (likely Pat Connaughton) on Detroit, they could hypothetically trade Middleton, Portis and three minimum contracts for Butler, though there’s no indication that such a deal is on the table. If the Heat ends up with Middleton in the deal, the positive is that he’s still productive despite missing considerable time with injuries.

He’s averaging 12.6 points, 5.1 assists in 23.5 minutes per game (18 games, seven starts) while shooting 48 percent overall and 37.7 on threes. The downside: Middleton, 33, missed the first 21 games while recovering from offseason surgery on each ankle. He has played in just 66, 33 and 55 games the past three seasons and 18 this season. That’s the reason he’s likely to exercise his $34 million player option for next season.

▪ Besides the need to remove the chaos and drama around Butler, the Heat’s other big motivation to make a deal would be avoiding the potential consequences of Butler opting into his deal this summer. The worst scenario for Miami would be Butler opting in and the Heat being unable to find an adequate trade. In that scenario, Miami would have $191.5 million in committed salaries, above both the $154.6 million cap and $187.9 million luxury tax line. In that scenario, Miami would not have access to a $14 million midlevel exception, likely would not use a $5.1 million biannual exception and would be dangerously close to the $195 million first apron.

Teams over the first and second apron can’t take back more money than they send out in a trade. Unless a trade is already lined up before Butler opts in, that scenario could force the Heat to at least consider releasing Duncan Robinson, which would come with $10 million in salary and cap savings. Only $9.8 million of Robinson’s $19.9 million in salary next season is guaranteed.

▪ Though Butler has some of the leverage now, the Heat holds this ultimate leverage: If Miami doesn’t deal Butler before the Feb. 6 trade deadline, the team could tell him that it won’t trade him if he opts in and that it will keep suspending him for any violation. (Butler’s only reason to opt in would be preserving his $52.4 million salary for next season, with the thinking that the Heat would trade him.)

Also, if he does opt in, Butler needs Miami’s help to trade him, because no contender has close to the cap space needed to give him a max contract without the Heat’s cooperation in a sign-and-trade. If the Heat keeps Butler past Feb. 6 and he opts out, Miami could either use a $14 million midlevel exception and a $5.1 million bi-annual exception or use about $13 million in cap space (which swells to $23 million if Robinson is released early this summer). The Heat’s goal remains to trade Butler, but Miami is disinclined to take what it considers a bad deal.

▪ Even if the Suns are willing to give Miami three first-rounders, accepting Beal’s contract still seems to be a non-starter for Miami, barring a change of heart. Taking back Beal would leave Miami $5 million over the luxury tax line next season. And paying him the $57 million he’s due in 2026-27 would leave Miami with about $28 million in cap space, not enough to offer anyone a max contract that summer. As it stands, the Heat would have $85 million in cap space that summer.

▪ Here’s a trend that the Heat hopes becomes reversed: Miami has acquired five veteran players, via trade, this decade. All five of them shot worse here than they did throughout their careers before the trade. Terry Rozier is a career 41.9 percent shooter and 36.3 percent on three-pointers. In his final half season with Charlotte last year, he shot 45.9 and 35.8. In 69 games with the Heat, Rozier is at 41.4 and 33.1. Kyle Lowry shot 39.6 percent on threes in his last season with Toronto, then slipped to 37.7 and 34.5 in his two full years with the Heat. Victor Oladipo shot 36.1 percent on threes for Oklahoma City and 35.6 on threes in four years with Indiana, then dipped to 33.6 here, while his overall shooting percentage tumbled five percentage points. Nemanja Bjelica went from shooting between 40 and 42 percent on threes for three consecutive seasons before falling to 37 percent with Miami and watching his overall shooting accuracy tumble five points.

Trevor Ariza went from shooting 49.1 percent overall and 40 percent on threes with Portland to 41.1 and 35.5, respectively, in his half season with the Heat. Likely factors include age and skill decline in the case of Lowry and Ariza and injury in the case of Oladipo. Rozier’s dip is far more mystifying.

▪ In three games since returning from his first (seven-game) suspension, the Heat has been outscored by 11 with Butler on the court. He’s averaging 13 points, compared with just more than 17 per game before the suspension. And there was this from ESPN’s Bobby Marks: Butler attempted fewer than 10 shots from the field in four of his last five games (three after the suspension, two right before). This is the first time since 2013 when he had a five-game stretch with no more than 57 points, 42 field goal attempts and 14 free-throw attempts.

Also, per Marks, in the loss to Portland on Tuesday, Butler moved at a fast speed (more than 14 feet/second) only 5% of the time, his second-lowest percentage in a game, with a minimum of 20 minutes. He passed the ball on 76 percent of his touches, tied for second most in a game this year.

▪ A buyout would accomplish nothing, because Butler doesn’t want to take a pay cut, the Heat doesn’t want to pay him to go away and NBA apron rules would prohibit him from then signing with Phoenix or multiple contenders.

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