The Houston Texans are back in the Divisional Round for the season straight postseason, and the Kansas City Chiefs begin their quest for the first Super Bowl three-peat in NFL history.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs as they rested some starters in the regular-season finale after clinching the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the AFC.
Before the Week 18 game against the Denver Broncos, Kansas City had won the last six regular-season games with victories over three playoff teams during that span, including against Houston.
In the Week 16 matchup between the Texans and Chiefs, Kansas City managed to win with Mahomes dealing with a sprained ankle, while Houston saw one of its playmakers Tank Dell go down with a season-ending torn ACL injury.
The Texans’ journey to the finish line of the 2024 season was not convincing after losing, 31-2, on Christmas Day to the Baltimore Ravens, drawing questions as to whether Houston could be a serious contender come January. Fortunately, Houston won the AFC South title prior to the embarrassing defeat to host a playoff game.
Houston answered the call in the Wild Card Weekend game against the Los Angeles Chargers. C.J. Stroud and the Texans scored 23 consecutive points to secure a 32-12 win behind a defense that forced Justin Herbert to throw four interceptions.
The last time these teams met in the playoffs, Houston had a strong start, leading 24-0 in the 2019 Divisional Round. But Mahomes and the Chiefs rallied back to take a 28-24 edge at halftime. Kansas City won the memorable game, 51-31, went on to win Super Bowl LIV and start a dynasty.
Here are three things to watch for when the Texans visit the Chiefs in Saturday’s playoff game:
1) Can the Chiefs offense get to a quick start? Saturday will mark 24 days since we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes play an NFL game. Mahomes is in familiar territory, having taken long breaks after clinching the No. 1 seed four times in his career. In the Mahomes era, the Chiefs are 4-0 and average 32.8 points per game in the Divisional Round after a first-round bye. If Kansas City wants to be near that winning formula after averaging 22.6 points per game and failing to score more than 31 points in the 2024 regular season, it will need contributions from Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown and 2024 first-round pick Xavier Worthy. Mahomes had a subpar performance in Week 16 versus Houston (28-of-41 passing, 260 yards, one passing touchdown, including 33 rushing yards and a score), but he did enough to get the team’s 14th win of the season. Houston didn’t allow Kelce to have a big game (five catches for 30 yards). However, Worthy did damage with his 11 targets, catching seven of them for 65 yards and a TD. The Chiefs have played in many tight contests this season, and the 24-day layoff could factor into a slow start for the reigning champs. But Mahomes is in his stomping ground in Arrowhead, and Kansas City knows the two-time MVP can win in the cold weather.
2) This could be C.J. Stroud’s legacy game. Even though Stroud’s stats are not close to his stellar rookie campaign, the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year has made the most of what he’s got. In the wild-card game against the Chargers, Stroud and the offense’s first five possessions were a fumble, three punts and an interception. A slow start in a rowdy Arrowhead Stadium won’t be any good for a second-year QB. Stroud will need to rely on Pro Bowlers Joe Mixon and Nico Collins if the Texans want to pull off an upset on the road. The RB-WR duo made Texans history on Wild Card Weekend with Mixon becoming the second player with 100-plus rushing yards in a playoff game and Collins set a franchise postseason record with 122 receiving yards. When Stroud targeted Collins, the QB had a perfect passer rating compared to a 62.1 rating when he was targeting all other players, per Next Gen Stats. With Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo game-planning versus Stroud, Houston needs another pass catcher to step up. Dalton Schultz found success in Week 16 against the Chiefs. The veteran tight end contributed five receptions for 45 yards and a score. If the Texans would like to knock off the Chiefs, Stroud and Co. must put some points on the board early to apply some pressure on Kansas City’s game plan.
3) Which defense will force turnovers? Many know of Steve Spagnuolo being able to throw opposing quarterbacks off their game in big games, but Texans defensive coordinator Matt Burke and his unit have done their fair share, too. Houston ranks sixth in the NFL in total defense, while Kansas City is ninth, respectively. Before resting key defensive starters in Week 18, the Chiefs D allowed fewer than 20 points in each of its last five games. Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Nick Bolton and Trent McDuffie have commanded Spagnuolo’s unit in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Texans pass rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have done their parts to form one of the best defenses. Houston’s defensive unit ranks top three in sacks and takeaways in 2024, including the playoffs. That will be key since Patrick Mahomes has taken a career-high 2.3 sacks and 6.8 QB hits per game this season. Since placing All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney at left tackle in Week 15, the Chiefs have reaped the rewards. He hasn’t allowed a sack in 130 pass block attempts, while the other three Kansas City LTs allowed 11.5 sacks combined, per NFL Research. So, giving Mahomes all the time to make his reads or extend plays with his legs could be the difference on Saturday. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that Mahomes is 6-0 in the Divisional Round with zero giveaways.
