The Houston Texans fell short against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on December 21st but they’ll get a second chance at taking down the champs in the opening game of the divisional round.
The Chiefs will come into this game well-rested with their starters having two weeks not, not having played since Christmas Day against the Steelers. Will the extra rest help them, or will they deal with a bit of rust early in the game?
Let’s take a look at the latest odds and then I’ll predict the final score.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread
- Texans +8.5 (-105)
- Chiefs -8.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Texans +340
- Chiefs -440
Total
- OVER 41.5 (-108)
- UNDER 41.5 (-112)
The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites this past weekend, but the line has since increased one point up to Chiefs -8.5. The total in the game has dropped two points from 43.5 to 41.5.
Texans vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction
In this week’s edition of the “Road to Super Bowl 59”, I broke down why I’m taking the Texans to not only win but to pull off the upset:
I have been anti-Chiefs all season, so it’s time to put my money where my mouth is. The Chiefs aren’t nearly as good as their record is, and now have been overvalued by the betting market. Let’s take a look at where they rank in a few key areas heading into this week:
Does that look like the makeup of a team that should be this big of a favorite in the divisional round? You’re only defense of the Chiefs at this point is that they’re the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions, but if you look at this season in a vacuum, they are ripe to be upset.
The Chiefs’ biggest strength is their third-down offense. Patrick Mahomes thrives on third down and their offense is third in the NFL in the area. If the Texans can pull off their upset, it’ll be because of their third-down defense which ranks third in the NFL, keeping teams from converting third downs at a rate of just 35.5%. They’re also fourth in opponent EPA on third down and third in opponent third down success rate.
Call me crazy, but I’ll take the Texans to pull off the upset.
When it comes to the total, I’m going to back the UNDER. If I think the Texans pull off the upset, their path to victory isn’t going to be to beat the Chiefs in an offensive shootout. Strong defensive play and taking advantage of offensive opportunities to edge out the defending champs is what’s going to get the job done.
Final score prediction: Texans 21, Chiefs 17
