3 Heat youngsters taking advantage of Jimmy Butler’s suspension

It’s here. The youth movement is here for the Miami Heat and it’s been on display the last couple of weeks. Since the suspension of Jimmy Butler, the “kids”, Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr, and Kel’el Ware have not only been getting more minutes, but also more usage and responsibility.

This also hasn’t been just garbage time minutes or minutes that result in wins. The young blood has played a key part in this win streak, too.

Since the Butler suspension from January 4th in five games, those three are averaging:

  • Jaquez: 15.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists on 56.6% eFG and 60.9% TS with 20.0% usage
  • Ware: 7.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.2 blocks on 58.2% eFG and 59.1% TS with 18.1% usage
  • Jovic: 16.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists on 54.6% eFG and 58.7% TS with 23.8% usage

It is just five games but it’s still encouraging to see. That is definitely progress.

I also want to quickly focus on both Jaquez and Jovic in games that Butler didn’t play all season. Jaquez is scoring 15.7 points per 75 possessions on 50.8% eFG and 55.6% TS and Jovic is scoring 18.0 points on 56.4% and 62.2%. This has been a thing for them in general, where if Butler doesn’t play, they have been asked to do more and have produced.

Digging further into the tracking stats(not counting the Blazers game, as tracking isn’t available), in the last four games, Jaquez is third on the team in touches with 65.1 per 36 minutes and Jovic is first with 75.7! That’s right Jovic is leading the team in touches per 36 minutes. That’s certainly a big jump. This is also seen in the time of possession. Jaquez is at 3.9 and Jovic at 2.7. Before the new year, Jaquez was at 2.0 and Jovic at 1.2.

When it comes to Ware, that hasn’t seen a drastic change in usage or responsibility. But he has been their back up big since December 21st. That’s 12 games now him being a reliable back up that plays over 16 minutes per game and is winning his minutes. Per PBP Stats, even when you remove low leverage minutes, they are +12.1 net in 166 minutes with a 125.1 ORTG!

Ware has been doing his job. Simple as that. Both Jaquez and Jovic have been asked to do more and have been showcasing a lot more upside and flashes of fun basketball. So, let’s go through some film of the main things that stood out with all three of them recently

Before going into each player, I want to start the breakdown of a play that luckily featured all three of them working together:

Look at all the youngins working together

Jovic post up draws a double. That opens up Jaime to cut, which draws the defense at the rim & that opens up Ware to cut from the dunker for an easy dunk pic.twitter.com/TB4rKXpQ1N

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) January 13, 2025

It starts off with a Jovic post up, which draws a double from Jaquez. That allows Jaquez to cut into the space. Jovic makes the right read quickly to him cutting. Jaquez has the open lane to attack, which forces the low-man to help from Ware, who is cutting from the 3pt line. Jaquez draws the defense and it’s an easy lob.

This was your three youngins working together, drawing the defense, making multiple right reads, being spaced out well, and making smart decisions to get an easy look at the rim. This was perfection.

Let’s get to each player now. The first thing is Jovic. He has been running a lot more PNRs lately and handling the ball in general a lot more

Nikola Jovic pick and roll game in the last week pic.twitter.com/hGppxcXntF

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) January 13, 2025

Whether that’s with Bam or Ware, he’s been the ball handler so much more and it has looked pretty good. He’s been getting those drives in. He’s been able to turn the corner or take someone off the dribble. I’ve been liking the connection and chemistry he has with Ware already, that’s been used a lot.

There’s also him being more aggressive in general. This is where you’d see him attack more and better in isolation or in the post but also being more aggressive attacking off the catch.

Nikola Jovic scoring in isolation, post ups & off-ball pic.twitter.com/ACiHcmMOsd

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) January 13, 2025

This aggression has translated into good things. And looking back at some of his attacks earlier in the season, these are a lot more in control. Look at the way he’s also attacking those closeouts. That is new and so much better. He’s been able to capitalize better off an advantage from someone else by attacking on the go or the Heat have been running him off screens where he can curl to the rim. If that didn’t work, he has continued to keep that aggression by going to work himself in the post.

Take this ISO against Draymond Green:

This is Jovic taking Draymond off the dribble in ISO and getting to his spot for a good look

Also, before that just another Jovic-Ware PNR with him making a quick lead pass to the roll pic.twitter.com/68pW3GEITU

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) January 11, 2025

Another sign of improvement are plays like these:

He misses but I loved this from Jovic. Need more of someone just taking that initiative if you CAN have an advantage then you take it instead of waiting for something else

This looked like a play for Bam getting a screen but Jovic sees he can beat Kessler so he goes pic.twitter.com/YP5lQFYRWV

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) January 12, 2025

It’s Jovic taking the initiative and taking matters into his own hands. It’s not scripted. It’s not making a pre-determined read. This looks like a standard play for Bam Adebayo to come off a screen, but it ends with Jovic attacking. Why? He sees he has an advantage against Walker Kessler, and if you have an advantage, you take it. He doesn’t finish, but the improvisation to create a good look is very nice to see.

That has been trending upwards and there are clear signs of improvement, but at the same time, the actual result may not be that great yet. If you look at some of the percentages or stats for his scoring, particularly self-created or at the rim, it’s not the best. But with player development, habits and how they look matter more initially before worrying about the actual number. That’s a question down the road.

Beyond his scoring, with more Jovic having the ball, it also means more Jovic’s decision making being on display. That is probably still much better than his scoring ability. Jovic may actually be the best passer on this team if you consider everything that could go into passing ability.

Nikola Jovic passing in the last week in the PNR, drives & post ups pic.twitter.com/xERYogMGhx

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) January 13, 2025

He’s shown that in the PNR with some great lobs to Ware. His passing in general to the roller has been timely and accurate. I always love his passing out of the post. That is my favorite. The way he so quickly recognises when to pass is probably the best on the team. He’s also been getting doubled in the post more frequently, and when that happens, whoosh! The pass is already out of his hands in a shooter’s pocket. Even when he’s not involved in actions for him, he has been used as a hub willing to make whatever passes through any kind of window.

Jovic in these last few games has been showing what those flashes and potential could be in the future. There are already aspects that look legit, instead of just small sample size, like his passing ability. His confidence in running the show as the ball handler is gradually improving. That all looks legit. This isn’t mentioning some numbers or efficiency that would likely decline, but it’s just how he’s looked.

Moving on to Jaquez, who’s looking like he’s bouncing back. There hasn’t been much new to his game or how he’s being used. Him being used more without Butler has been the norm, even last year too. His on-ball usage is also nothing that hasn’t happened before. But in the context what he was like earlier in the season, he has looked better. He’s looking more like Jaquez from last year.

The first thing that has improved drastically is the 2pt percentage. He’s shooting 58.5% in these last five games. This includes 61.1% at the rim with 33.9% rim rate. He’s also shooting 60.0% within 4-14ft with a 37.7% rate. 60% at the rim and in the paint is high, particularly the second number. Even doubling the sample size to the last 10 games, it’s 55.2% at the rim and 51.5% within 4-14ft.

Jaime Jaquez Jr scoring inside in the last 2 weeks

He’s shooting 60% at the rim and 60% within 4-14ft in the last 5 games pic.twitter.com/3sBJfbOI0z

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) January 13, 2025

This is all part of his game that we’ve seen before and it’s coming back to life. It’s also been interesting to see how much the Heat have put him in positions in the clutch too.

I liked how they went to Jaime for 3 straight times in the clutch

– Defense switches, so Bam slips & gets a short roll into a floater
– Defense doesn’t look to switch & he gets going downhill
– Defense looks to go under & Jaime goes for the PU 3pt pic.twitter.com/8DRReez8KG

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) January 11, 2025

Against the Jazz, they run three straight PNRs for him. That’s something to keep an eye on. They’ve been trusting him more in those late game situations to make something. This was something that happened in the Kings game too where the Kings were putting two on the ball, and he had to make the decisions.

At this point, with Jaquez, it’s these little things. It’s the decision-making. It’s adding some new counters here and there. It’s simply refining all parts of his game that have already shown to be effective. So far, in this stretch, he has answered and has looked so much better than previously.

Finally we have Ware, who I said is simply doing his job. That’s really what he’s been doing. It might seem reductive or not as big of a compliment but as a big on both ends of the floor, simply doing your job is highly important. A big is responsible for so much. He has to screen, which gets other players open. He has to know when to roll or when to not be in someone’s way. He has to finish on easy shots at the rim. Then on defense, it’s an even bigger responsibility. And it’s all of that which he’s been doing a good job at.

However, one thing to highlight about Ware that impressed me was his decision-making. Tyler Herro and everyone have been seeing a lot more 2 on the ball in actions, which means the decision-making also lies with the roll man. Ware now has to be someone who can reliably make decisions on the short roll:

More Herro PNRs with him drawing 2 & we have Ware again making reads on the short roll

Good quick decisions on the roll to Haywood cutting pic.twitter.com/DVIPNsGIbn

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) January 12, 2025

This happened in the Warriors game too. You can see how quickly he makes that read to kick to Jovic.

And there was this:

I liked this from Ware. This is going to be a needed skill for him in the Heat’s offense

Works as the hub on the elbow & makes a great pass to Jovic cutting after getting a screen from Duncan to force the switch pic.twitter.com/o3HIpfFbQT

— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) January 11, 2025

That’s part of the Heat’s offense. That also needs to be the big man’s skill and so far, in limited usage, he has made solid reads as the decision maker, even as the hub on the elbow.

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