BREAKING: Alex Vesia will now head to arbitration after he and the Dodgers could not come to a contract agreement for 2025 today.
He was the only LA player eligible for arbitration that did not come to a settlement.
Alex Vesia was the most-used Dodgers reliever in 2024 and one of the best and most-trusted pitchers in the bullpen, coming off his best season. He’s one of five Dodgers relief pitchers eligible for salary arbitration heading into 2025.
Last year was Vesia’s first year going through salary arbitration. Like every other eligible Dodger, the left-hander agreed to terms on a contract by the exchange date in January, and earned $1 million in 2024.
In previewing Vesia’s arbitration last year, I thought he would earn more than that based on comparable relievers with three years of service time. I projected Vesia to earn $1.4 million in 2024, which was between the projections from Cot’s Baseball Contracts and MLB Trade Rumors.
Several of those comparable pitchers through three years of service time still seem applicable to Vesia now, at four years, 78 days of service time.
Pitchers comparable to Alex Vesia through four years of service time
| Pitcher | Year | Service time | IP | Saves | BB rate | K rate | ERA | xERA | FIP | bWAR | fWAR | Prev. salary | Salary | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Vesia | 2025 | 4.078 | 66⅓ | 5 | 12.5% | 33.1% | 1.76 | 2.81 | 3.45 | 1.6 | 1.1 | $1,000,000 | TBD | TBD |
| Tyler Rogers | 2024 | 4.034 | 74 | 2 | 6.1% | 19.4% | 3.04 | 2.73 | 3.76 | 1.7 | 0.6 | $1,675,000 | $3,200,000 | 91.0% |
| Erik Swanson | 2024 | 4.096 | 66⅔ | 4 | 8.0% | 28.6% | 2.97 | 3.04 | 3.51 | 1.4 | 0.8 | $1,250,000 | $2,750,000 | 120.0% |
| Colin Poche | 2024 | 4.114 | 60⅔ | 1 | 9.8% | 24.8% | 2.23 | 2.65 | 3.34 | 1.7 | 1.1 | $1,175,000 | $2,375,000 | 102.1% |
| Hunter Harvey | 2024 | 4.047 | 60⅔ | 10 | 5.5% | 28.5% | 2.82 | 3.33 | 3.29 | 1.9 | 1.3 | $870,000 | $2,350,000 | 170.1% |
| Hoby Milner | 2024 | 4.068 | 64⅓ | 0 | 5.2% | 23..4% | 1.82 | 2.95 | 3.13 | 1.7 | 1.0 | $1,025,000 | $2,050,000 | 100.0% |
| Yency Almonte | 2024 | 4.143 | 48 | 0 | 11.5% | 23.6% | 5.06 | 4.33 | 4.59 | -0.5 | 0.1 | $1,500,000 | $1,900,000 | 26.7% |
| Génesis Cabrera | 2024 | 4.011 | 55⅔ | 0 | 10.0% | 24.3% | 4.04 | 4.18 | 4.44 | 0.2 | 0.1 | $950,000 | $1,512,500 | 59.2% |
| JT Chargois | 2024 | 4.101 | 42⅓ | 1 | 10.3% | 20.1% | 3.61 | 3.63 | 3.80 | 0.8 | 0.4 | $850,000 | $1,285,000 | 51.2% |
Vesia posted a 1.76 ERA that ranked seventh among qualified relievers, and led the Dodgers with a 33.1-percent strikeout rate, his third year in the last four with a strikeout rate above 30 percent. He also led the Dodgers with 67 appearances, including pitching through a knee ailment shortly after the All-Star break.
“He’s competing like he always has,” manager Dave Roberts said of Vesia in August. “One of the things Alex prides himself on is taking the baseball and be able to post.”
Among the group of comparable pitchers, Vesia had the best ERA in the season directly before the four-year arbitration year, and his xERA was the third-best among the nine pitchers. Only Hunter Harvey had more saves than Vesia’s five. Hoby Milner was the only other ERA below 2.00, and he doubled his salary from the previous year, with his $1.025 million nearly matching Vesia’s $1 million in 2024.
Let’s look at that same group with their career stats through four years of service time.
Alex Vesia comparable pitchers, career numbers
| Pitcher | Year | Service time | IP | Saves | BB rate | K rate | ERA | ERA+ | FIP | bWAR | fWAR | Prev. salary | Salary | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Vesia | 2025 | 4.078 | 214⅔ | 8 | 11.5% | 32.3% | 2.89 | 142 | 3.53 | 3.1 | 3.1 | $1,000,000 | TBD | TBD |
| Tyler Rogers | 2024 | 4.034 | 276⅓ | 18 | 5.6% | 18.0% | 2.96 | 139 | 3.37 | 6.1 | 3.5 | $1,675,000 | $3,200,000 | 91.0% |
| Erik Swanson | 2024 | 4.096 | 221⅓ | 10 | 6.2% | 27.0% | 3.78 | 110 | 3.96 | 2.3 | 2.4 | $1,250,000 | $2,750,000 | 120.0% |
| Colin Poche | 2024 | 4.114 | 171 | 10 | 9.3% | 28.2% | 3.58 | 114 | 3.98 | 1.6 | 1.5 | $1,175,000 | $2,375,000 | 102.1% |
| Hunter Harvey | 2024 | 4.047 | 123⅔ | 10 | 6.9% | 27.5% | 2.84 | 151 | 3.17 | 3.4 | 2.4 | $870,000 | $2,350,000 | 170.1% |
| Hoby Milner | 2024 | 4.068 | 206⅓ | 0 | 6.7% | 22.7% | 3.53 | 120 | 4.13 | 2.2 | 0.9 | $1,025,000 | $2,050,000 | 100.0% |
| Yency Almonte | 2024 | 4.143 | 207⅓ | 2 | 9.8% | 21.9% | 4.51 | 104 | 4.49 | 0.9 | 0.8 | $1,500,000 | $1,900,000 | 26.7% |
| Génesis Cabrera | 2024 | 4.011 | 213 | 3 | 11.6% | 23.6% | 3.97 | 104 | 4.35 | -0.2 | 0.6 | $950,000 | $1,512,500 | 59.2% |
| JT Chargois | 2024 | 4.101 | 195 | 1 | 9.4% | 23.8% | 3.55 | 118 | 3.85 | 3.0 | 1.1 | $850,000 | $1,285,000 | 51.2% |
Vesia again holds up well with this group in career numbers. He’s a near match for Harvey, better in some categories and close in others, with 91 more innings. Harvey earned $2.35 million in 2024.
Some of the pitchers were working from a higher base salary the season before than Vesia, so perhaps the percentage raise is another way to look at this.
Four of the pitchers at least doubled their salary at four years of service time, and Tyler Rogers was at 91 percent. Vesia with that raise would be at $1.91 million in 2025, and on the upper end of that group is the 120-percent raise for Erik Swanson. Vesia getting a 120-percent raise would make $2.2 million.
Cot’s Baseball Contracts predicts Vesia will earn $1.75 million in 2025, while MLB Trade Rumors projects $1.9 million. I think Vesia ends up in between Milner and Harvey, and will make $2.15 million this coming year.
