The consensus around baseball is that Roki Sasaki, the flamethrowing Japanese pitcher who is a free agent coveted by the Yankees and able to sign with U.S. teams on a bonus-pool basis (he is only 23, and too young to come to MLB as a pure free agent), is bound for the Dodgers. It makes sense.

L.A. is not only the defending champ and already home to two big Japanese stars–Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto–but the team is always looking to beef up its rotation.

But former general manager Jim Bowden sees things differently. He sees the presence of Yamamoto and Ohtani as good reasons not to sign in L.A. Because his salary will be capped by bonus-pool limitations (remember, Ohtani was in the same situation as Sasaki and made only $4 million in his first four seasons with the Angels), Sasaki will be seeking to bolster his payday with endorsements.

And, Bowden writes, “In Los Angeles, he’d be in the shadow of both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, lessening his endorsement ceiling.”

He would have no such limitations with the Yankees however.

Yankees Ex-Star Masahiro Tanaka Was a Hero

That’s why Bowden predicts that, if Sasaki is willing to come to the East coast, he will land with the Yankees (or with the Padres if he does want to stay in the West). Sasaki and his agent, Joel Wolfe, met with the  Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Padres, Rangers, and Yankees in what Wolfe called, “The Roki Film Festival.”

Wrote Bowden:  “Wolfe recently provided an update on the 23-year-old star’s unusual free agency, but none of us know how this ends or what exactly Sasaki is thinking. His favorite player growing up was Masahiro Tanaka, which would lead me to guess he was at least somewhat of a Yankees fan.

“He considers Yu Darvish a godfather-type influence, and the Padres veteran mentored Sasaki during Japan’s championship run in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Therefore, for no other reason, I’ll predict he signs with either the Yankees or San Diego.”

Sasaki can officially sign on January 15.

Roki Sasaki Could Be an Ace

Adding Sasaki to an already remade Yankees pitching staff would be a major win for Brian Cashman and Co., who gave out a hefty deal to star pitcher Max Fried, worth $218 million over eight years, to join Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation.

The Yankees could slot Sasaki in as a No. 3 starter and have the luxury of deploying veteran Carlos Rodon and Rookie of the Year Luis Gil as the Nos. 4 and 5 starters. That’s by far the deepest rotation in the league, and arguably the best.

Sasaki has the potential to be an ace, better than Cole or Fried.

He is equipped with one-of-a-kind stuff, and is able to dominate with just two pitches, a fastball that consistently tops 100 mph and is packed with movement, plus a bottom-out split-finger pitch that is near impossible to hit.

Sports Info Solutions summed up Sasaki’s fastball: “Sasaki’s fastball is one of two unicorn-type pitches for him. The average velocity is hard to match, as his four-seamer would have put him second among qualified starters in MLB last season behind only Bobby Miller who averaged 99.1 mph on his four-seamer last season. Sasaki’s fastball has also touched 102.5 mph.”