Week 18 for the Kansas City Chiefs is set to be a lot less stressful. The Chiefs received the best gift that keeps on giving back on Christmas Day when they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers to capture the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.
That means not only does Kansas City have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, but they can also rest most of their starters in the final regular season game against the Denver Broncos this weekend.
No matter the result of Sunday’s game, the Chiefs will finish with the best record in the NFL this season, either at 16-1 or 15-2 (tied with the Lions).
But in the grand scheme of things, the game means nothing to the Chiefs. Does that mean they’ll lay down against their AFC West rival?
“I’ve been through that before, so I’m not too worried about all that,” coach Andy Reid said, per ESPN. “It gives the other guys an opportunity here to grow and you can use everybody.
“The primary thing is to make sure that we stay sharp in all areas through this game and for the upcoming weeks. … We want to stay sharp mentally and physically, and then that’s our responsibility to do that and how we manage the time. I make sure I do that practice-wise, and the guys go out, players and coaches, and work on that.”
Though not confirmed by Reid, it’s likely most of the team’s usual starters will take the day—or at least part of the day—off, like Patrick Mahomes, there are still only so many players on a roster. That means there will still be plenty of talent on the field for Kansas City, including Mahomes’ backup, Carson Wentz, who will be making his first start of the season.
While this game doesn’t mean anything to Kansas City, it means everything to the Broncos, who need to win to hold off the Bengals and Dolphins and secure the final No. 7 seed in the AFC playoffs. But does that give the Chiefs an extra incentive to win the game?
Earlier this season, the Chiefs beat the Broncos at home, albeit with the help of a blocked field goal attempt. Can the Chiefs finish out the season strong against their division rival? Let’s get into our bold predictions for the Chiefs versus the Broncos in Week 18.
Carson Wentz throws for at least 200 yards, scores three touchdowns
Carson Wentz will be making his first start since last season when he was with the Los Angeles Rams. His career record as a starter is 47-45-1, though he is 3-5 in his last meaningful stretch of games. In his last full season, with the Indianapolis Colts, Wentz went 9-8 across 17 games.
Still just 32 years old, Wentz likely feels he has something to prove. Helping solidify yet another historic season for what is currently the NFL’s premier dynasty would certainly be meaningful.
“I’m going to prepare to go out there and win and then have a good performance with this offense,” Wentz said. “I got one shot last year, and so for me, it’s just not taking these chances for granted and having fun with it [and] cutting it loose.”
Don’t be surprised if Wentz does just that, throwing for 200 yards or more while accounting for a few of scores—one of which could come with his legs. Wentz has recorded at least one rushing touchdown in all but two of his nine NFL seasons.
“I’m confident in myself,” Wentz said. “I’m confident in my abilities and what I’ve done in the past is in the past — good, bad, indifferent. I’m so confident I can play and play at a high level and so I’m looking forward to hopefully doing that this weekend and having fun while I’m at it.”
Noah Gray scores at least one touchdown with at least 60 yards receiving
We all know the star tight end of the team is Travis Kelce, but Kelce is likely to sit out against the Broncos. That leaves plenty of opportunities for Noah Gray to step up and become a key target for Carson Wentz.
Gray, who has dealt with some minor injuries this season, has managed just four receptions on seven targets for 37 yards and one touchdown over the past three games. His best performance of the season came against the Carolina Panthers, where he recorded four catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns. Expect a similar performance from Gray against the Broncos.
Chiefs won’t allow the Broncos to score over 20 points
Regardless of whether most of the starters are sitting, the Chiefs still boast the NFL’s No. 2 scoring defense. They’ve allowed just 18 points per game this season and have held all but four opponents under 20 points. The season-high total came in their lone loss, a 30-point outing by the Buffalo Bills.
The Broncos, meanwhile, have had their fair share of offensive inconsistency this season while breaking in rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Facing Kansas City’s defense will be yet another tough test for Denver, especially considering the Chiefs held them to just 14 points in their first meeting.
Chiefs pull off upset over Broncos, knocking Denver out of the playoffs
The Chiefs currently enter Week 18 as 10.5-point underdogs against the Broncos, according to FanDuel. That’s only due to the circumstances for Kansas City, as they have nothing to gain or lose this week, having already secured everything they need for the postseason.
As typical as this season has been for the Chiefs in terms of their record, they’ve achieved it in some unusual ways. Of their 16 games, 11 have been decided by one score or less—and they’ve managed to win every single one, though not always in the same fashion.
This isn’t a team that has necessarily dominated opponents outright; instead, they’ve relied on better coaching, better schemes, and seizing opportunities when they arise. Why should that change—especially against a division rival like the Broncos? Chiefs win in an upset.