Tyler Herro should be a lock to make the NBA All-Star game.
Maybe it sounds crazy to put Herro in the same conversation as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson and Jayson Tatum as far as players who should be guaranteed a trip to San Francisco for All-Star weekend in February, but there haven’t been 12 players in the Eastern Conference better than Herro this season.
“I would love to be an All-Star,” Herro said after a recent practice. “That’s been my goal since I came into the league. We’ll see. I got to get votes. I’m definitely worthy, though.”
Tyler Herro should be a lock to be an All-Star.
Herro’s performance in Sunday night’s win over the Houston Rockets has become commonplace for the Miami Heat this season. He tallied 27 points on 10 of 17 shooting, nine assists and six rebounds while ticking off the Rockets to the point of a brawl.
Over his six seasons, Herro has graduated from a scowling irritant to an all-around offensive menace. The flashes are no longer confined to the pan. Herro is putting together his most consistent season yet, averaging career highs in points (24), 3-point shooting (3.9 makes on 41%), rebounds (5.7) and assists (5.2).
As he’s overhauled his shot chart to replicate Steph Curry, the numbers have followed. Herro is fourth in the league in 3-pointers made per game, behind LaMelo Ball, Curry and Anthony Edwards. Only Edwards is shooting a higher percentage from beyond the arc, and only by a tenth of a percentage point.
Within that group, Herro has the highest overall field goal percentage and is getting to the line more than anyone but Ball.
NBA’s top 3-point shooters
| Name | PPG | FG% | 3PM | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | 30.1 | 42.5 | 4.5 | 34.6 |
| Stephen Curry | 22.5 | 44.2 | 4.2 | 40.6 |
| Anthony Edwards | 24.9 | 44.2 | 4.0 | 41.1 |
| Tyler Herro | 24 | 47.6 | 3.9 | 41 |
Among Eastern Conference players who have played at least 20 games, Herro is 10th in points per game and 18th in assists. The Heat have had a 116.5 offensive rating with Herro on the court, which would rank seventh for the season, sandwiched between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder.
When looking at his All-Star case, the East can send up to six guards on the 12-man roster. Each conference gets two starting guards, three starting frontcourt players, two reserve guards, three reserve frontcourt players and two wild cards.
The obvious locks in the backcourt include Brunson, Damian Lillard and Mitchell.
After that, Herro is on the shortlist with Trae Young, Tyrese Haliburton, Tyrese Maxey, LaMelo Ball, Cade Cunningham and Darius Garland. Up to three players on that shortlist can be voted in.
If you wanted to whittle it down even further, you could come up with a final three of Young, Ball and Herro. (While Haliburton is a household name, his numbers have been far below expectations.)
Two of those guards will have to compete with frontcourt players for the final two wildcard spots.
Four of the six frontcourt spots will go to Antetokounmpo, Tatum, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaylen Brown.
Jalen Johnson, averaging a double-double for Atlanta, should get a spot. Franz Wagner may have played enough games to get in.
Then it’s down to a shortlist of Pascal Siakam, Jimmy Butler, Evan Mobley and Bam Adebayo.
Two of Young, Ball and Herro figure to compete with Siakam, Butler, Mobley and Adebayo for the final two wildcard spots in the East. Herro will likely knock out his teammates as more voters credit him for the Heat’s winning record. Siakam’s numbers haven’t been better than any of the guards he’s competing against. Mobley has a legitimate case to claim a final frontcourt spot, but you never know how voters will treat a defensive-leaning player from a small market.
Herro’s case to make his first All-Star game is as strong as ever. If he keeps this up and the Heat stack a few more wins between now and when voting closes, it’s hard to see a way he doesn’t make it.
Beyond the predictions, he’s deserved it. Herro has a chance to be Miami’s first 24-point-per-game scorer since LeBron James in 2014. His scoring and playmaking have become the fulcrum of the Heat’s offense. Finally, Herro has become the no. 1 option for a playoff-bound team. Soon, he’ll be able to call himself an All-Star.
