While the Kansas City Chiefs are gearing up for another playoff run, it’s never too early to look ahead to the offseason and envision what things could look like for the NFL’s top team. Free agency is a major component of that, and it’s going to be difficult for general manager Brett Veach to retain all of his high-profile players.
Right guard Trey Smith certainly fits that bill. The former sixth-round pick is currently set to hit the open market in March and with plenty of projected suitors out there, Kansas City faces a tall task if it wants to bring him back. Given the recent explosion of the guard market, that point is only driven home more.
NFL.com analyst Bucky Brooks, in fact, recently name-dropped Smith in his list of “contract-year winners” ahead of the spring. Brooks believes that thanks to his athletic profile and production, Smith will cash out in free agency.
“The two-time Super Bowl champion is a rugged interior blocker with the size, strength, power and skill to transform an offense at the point of attack,” Brooks wrote. “Smith’s toughness and physicality set the tone for the Chiefs, while his skill enables Patrick Mahomes to throw comfortably from the pocket. As teams look to rebuild or retool their offensive lines in order to protect the most important piece of the puzzle, this 6-6, 321-pounder will command significant attention on the free-agent market if Kansas City lets him walk.”
This isn’t a new belief from the national side, as Jeremy Fowler of ESPN assessed Smith’s situation back in November. At that time, he alluded to the former Tennessee standout potentially becoming the highest-paid guard in all of football. When posed with questions about his contract during the offseason, though, Smith didn’t seem too concerned.
“I don’t look at all that stuff, man,” Smith said. “I worry about what my coaches tell me, I worry about how they feel about me. You know, if I do my job at a high level, everything else is going to take care of itself. That’s all I’ve got to do, just keep working and do my job at a high level.”
Is Smith worthy of market-resetting money? There are cases to be made both for and against it. On one hand, he’ll turn just 26 years old this offseason and is a complete tone-setter in the run game. He’s truly capable, as Brooks hinted at, of being a foundational piece of an offensive line. Advanced metrics also love his profile, as Pro Football Focus is giving him his best grades across the board in 2024-25.
On the other hand, Smith may be merely a very good player instead of an elite one. PFF grades him as their 14th overall tackle but the 33rd player in pass blocking. That shows up on tape, as he gets flagged for the occasional penalty and also struggles with stunts. Could that be due to his poor fit with right tackle Jawaan Taylor? Perhaps, but Smith’s ceiling isn’t always hit regardless. He isn’t a clear-cut top guard in the sport.
Some team will likely break the aforementioned bank for Smith. He’s young, durable and has a high floor as a run-blocking aficionado. His aggressive mindset and sturdy play make him an easy piece to hand $20 million a year to and not feel bad. Very good players with high football character and time on their side always get taken care of. Those deals tend to age better than others.
Does that make re-signing him a tricky proposition for the Chiefs? Absolutely. It’s one of the downsides of drafting well, which is a reality Veach and Co. are beginning to realize. The 2021 class is Kansas City’s first with multiple realistic extension candidates. After locking up center Creed Humphrey long-term, will the club follow suit with Smith?
