The Kansas City Chiefs are oh so close to once again clinching the No. 1 seed on the AFC side of the 2024 NFL playoffs.

That’s a position that this rendition of the Chiefs is quite familiar with. In fact, the Chiefs have been the AFC’s No. 1 seed three times since the 2018 season.

That, of course, pales in comparison to the Chiefs’ dominance over the AFC West — a division they’ve won every season straight since 2016. Clinching the top seed in the AFC playoffs is certainly a different beast, though.

At least it had been with Tom Brady in New England. The Patriots were the AFC’s top seed seven times since 2003.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are looking to become the new Brady and the Patriots, and so far, they’re on track, which is incredible when you think about it.

Mahomes won his first Super Bowl in the 2019 season, and the Chiefs have won the past two in a row. Brady and the Patriots won six Super Bowls during their run, so while the Chiefs are in a good position, they’re still only about halfway there.

Having the No. 1 seed in the AFC won’t guarantee them a Super Bowl run.

Heck, they won it all last season as the third seed after beating the No. 1-seeded Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.

Sometimes winning in the playoffs isn’t about being the most talented team on paper, but it comes down to momentum, health and a little bit of luck.

The Chiefs are struggling a bit in the health department with Mahomes dealing with a high ankle sprain.

They do have momentum on their side though at 13-1 and winners of four straight, and they have certainly gotten their fair share of friendly bounces over this dynastic run.

The Chiefs don’t need to be the No. 1 seed to be the first team in the Super Bowl era to three-peat, but it sure wouldn’t hurt. And again, they’re oh so close.

Here’s how the Chiefs can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 16 of the 2024 NFL Season.

The Chiefs need to beat the Texans

Beating their Week 16 opponent is first and foremost in importance for the Chiefs. But the Houston Texans aren’t just going to roll over because they’ll be playing at a frigid Arrowhead Stadium in late December.

The Texans aren’t the sure-bet Super Bowl contender many thought they would be this season, but they’re still an incredibly dangerous bunch for the Chiefs. Houston is 9-5 and has won two straight, with wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins. They’ve dealt with injuries for much of this season—which has hindered them at times—and it’s not much different for Week 16.

Their star running back, Joe Mixon, is currently questionable with an ankle injury. Mixon has rushed for 910 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, and he’s undoubtedly one of the driving forces of a Texans offense that is 13th in the NFL in scoring at 23.4 points per game.

It all starts and ends with second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud for the Texans, though. Stroud has struggled at times this season and has worked his way through somewhat of a “sophomore slump” in 2024, but he’s still extremely dynamic as long as he protects the football. The Texans lost in Week 13 to the 3-8 Tennessee Titans after Stroud threw two interceptions.

He had a stretch in November that saw him throw five interceptions in three games, so he’s certainly suspectable to being turned over.

With all that said, the Texans are still the winner of the AFC South, so they in no way can be discounted by the Chiefs in this one.

Patrick Mahomes needs his rival, Josh Allen, to fail

The Chiefs can certainly take care of the Texans. It won’t be a cakewalk, but it’s certainly possible — even if Mahomes is sidelined and former MVP candidate Carson Wentz is the starter.

With Andy Reid calling the shots for that offense, the Chiefs should be just fine with either at quarterback and they may even be better off with a healthy Wentz over a hobbled Mahomes.

That’s all within the Chiefs’ control, but the one thing they can’t control in Week 16 is the other shoe that they’ll need to drop in order to clinch the No. 1 seed.

The Chiefs have to beat the Texans, but they also need one of their familiar foes to lose in Week 16. Speaking of MVP candidates, the Chiefs need Josh Allen and the 11-3 Buffalo Bills to completely faceplant and lose to the 3-11 New England Patriots in order to clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Beating the Texans is one thing. Hoping that Allen — the potential NFL MVP — and the red-hot Bills lose to a Patriots team that has lost four straight and is dead last in the AFC East is something else altogether, though.

Mahomes and the Chiefs will need to hope for a case of “Any Given Sunday” on Sunday afternoon in freezing cold Orchard Park, New York. And, hey, crazier things happen all the time in the NFL. There’s no love lost in the AFC East, so perhaps the Patriots will come out and try to prove a point against the Bills.

Chiefs vs. Texans is one of the early slate of games in Week 16 while the Bills and Patriots play the afternoon game on CBS, so there will certainly be plenty of Chiefs fans rooting for the Patriots later on Sunday afternoon — especially if the Chiefs can do their part and beat the Texans.