Red Sox Trade Prediction: $300 Million Slugger Could Give Boston a ‘Big Three’

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

How serious are the Boston Red Sox about staging a World Series run in 2025? After three last place finishes in the past five seasons, and a mediocre third-place last year, it may be hard to take team officials’ claims of “extreme urgency” to at least win the American League East in 2025 all that seriously.

But the club appears to be making a serious run at the top free agent in the market, former Yankees outfielder Juan Soto, and have been linked to some of the leading pitchers out there as well. And there is one potential deal that, of the Red Sox close it, could put them over the top heading into the 2025 season.

Of course, assembling an unstoppable “Murderer’s Row,” or Big Three in their offensive lineup would depend on the team finally convincing Soto to come to Boston, a prospect that he is reported to “prefer” — if the money is right. The team already has three-time All Star third baseman Rafael Devers locked up with eight years remaining on a 10-year, $313.5 million contract.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Could Be Final Piece of Red Sox Big Three

Who would be the final piece in the Red Sox Big Three power hitting combo? On Friday, Locked on Red Sox podcast host Gabby Hurlbut posed the question: “Is Vlad Guerrero Jr. to the Boston Red Sox a real possibility?”

Coming off a 30-home run season with a .940 OPS for the Toronto Blue Jays, and with a career slugging percentage of .500, the 25-year-old first baseman ranks among the premier sluggers in baseball. His offensive Wins Above Replacement (WAR) number for 2024 of 6.3 placed him seventh among all Major League hitters.

Guerrero Jr. will play 2025 on a one-year contract with the Blue Jays, collecting an estimated salary of $28.8 million, according to the sports business site SpoTrac. Then, heading into the 2026 season Guerrero Jr. will become a free agent, unless the Blue Jays sign him to a contract extension before then — a prospect which so far has not looked very hopeful.

While SpoTrac predicts the value of Guerrero Jr.’s next contract to be $259.8 million over 10 years, ESPN baseball insider Jeff Passan has said that a $300 million deal for the slugger is “more the floor than the ceiling.”

In any event, Guerrero Jr. will likely become the highest-paid first baseman in MLB history, surpassing the 10-year, $254 million contract signed by Albert Pujols with the Los Angeles Angels in 2011.

According to the newsletter Blue Jays Insider, Guerrero has said that we would be open to an extension and would like to retire as a Blue Jay, “but for some reason the team does not seem to be on the same page.”

How Could Boston Acquire Guerrero Jr.?

That means if Toronto wants to get any value for Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays will be forced to trade him either this offseason, or during the 2025 season.

Hurlbut noted that Guerrero Jr. appeared to show some enthusiasm about a move to the Red Sox when he “liked” a social media post depicting himself, Soto and Devers all in Red Sox uniforms. But would the Red Sox be willing to part with at least one of their “Big Four” prospects to get Guerrero Jr., even if possibly for one year only?

Those prospects are outfielder Roman Anthony, catcher Kyle Teel, second baseman Kristian Campbell and shortstop Marcelo Mayer. The Red Sox have been extremely reluctant to put any of the trade market, though Chief Baseball Officer has also said publicly that none of the four are off the table in trade talks.

The Red Sox could also include their own power-hitting first baseman Triston Casas in a trade for Guerrero. As ESPN’s Buster Olney has noted, the often-injured Casas would see his market value drop if he does not have a fully healthy campaign in 2025, so the time to trade him may be now.