The Heat’s highest-paid employees could leave Kaseya Center feeling very good about themselves on Friday night, even beyond the 121-111 win against a 5-15 Toronto team that pushed Miami back over .500. Jimmy Butler scored 26, continuing a exemplary recent stretch at home. Tyler Herro scored 23, continuing one of the best prolonged stretches of his career. Bam Adebayo crafted the eighth triple double of his career with 14 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.
hat happened Friday provides something of a template for what needs to happen far more often. As the Heat continues to try to make it work with this core, the jarring reality — upon closer inspection — is how rarely each of the team’s top three players all play well in the same game against good teams. Whether that will change in Season Six of the Butler/Adebayo/Herro era remains an open question.
But it must, soon, because after Sunday’s game at doormat Toronto (6 p.m., FanDuel Sports Sun), Miami will play Boston, the Lakers, Phoenix, Cleveland, Oklahoma City and at Orlando – with two additional games (against undetermined opponents) to be added by the NBA during that stretch. The fact that four of those games are at home is hardly comforting; Miami is 4-4 at home after going 22-19 at home last season. Since the start of last season, Butler, Adebayo and Herro have collectively suited up for 19 games against teams that made the playoffs last season. Miami is 5-14 in those games, and further analysis reveals that Butler, Adebayo and Herro all played well in the same game only four of those 19 occasions.
Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) reacts to a Jimmy Butler dunk after the alley-oop during the regular-season opener against the Orlando Magic on Wednesday, October 23, 2024, in Miami, Fla. D.A. Varela [email protected] Miami was 3-9 when its Big Three all played against playoff teams last year, with wins against the Lakers in December and Orlando and New Orleans in February.
There were also several lopsided losses among those 12 games — including a 33-point blowout by Boston, a 19-point drubbing by Dallas, and an 18-point stomping by Orlando. This season, when Butler, Herro and Adebayo are all available, Miami is 2-5 against 2023-24 playoff teams, with the wins against a struggling Philadelphia team missing All Star guard Tyrese Maxey and a Dallas team playing without All NBA icon Luka Doncic. In none of those seven games this season did Butler, Adebayo and Herro all play well on the same night.
For the most part, don’t blame Herro, who was off with his shot (5 for 14) in the inexcusable recent home loss to a Milwaukee team missing Giannis Antetokounmpo but has been unquestionably the Heat’s best player this season. Herro enters Sunday averaging career highs in scoring (23.6 per game), assists (5.1), shooting percentage (46.5) and three-point percentage (41.3). Adebayo shot a combined 11 for 41 In four of those seven games this season against last spring’s playoff teams (the Philadelphia win and losses to Orlando, the Knicks and Phoenix).
Terry Rozier’s uneven play, injuries, the Heat’s modest contributions at power forward and other factors certainly have contributed significantly to the Heat’s poor play against playoff teams over the past 11 months. But TNT’s Charles Barkley said the issue is simpler than that. “Their two stars are not playing great,” Barkley said before the Heat lost to the Bucks on Tuesday.
“Your two great players, Bam and Jimmy, need to be All Stars. Herro is a good player; don’t get me wrong. But he’s not a better player than Bam and Jimmy. We can talk all the crap we want to, but your best players have to be great. Your stars have to be stars.” Since the start of the 2022-23 season, the Heat is just 47-46 when Butler, Adebayo and Herro all play. That’s the record against all opponents, not just playoff teams. The Heat has played 341 different three-man combinations this season.
Despite Herro’s good work and Butler’s excellence of late, the Butler/Adebayo/Herro troika has been the 17th worst of those 341, from a plus-minus standpoint, with Miami having been outscored by 21 when they’re on the court together. The play of the supporting cast obviously factors into that. Last season, the Heat was plus 26 when Butler, Adebayo and Herro played together. Though Adebayo has elevated his game when Butler and Herro have been injured in the past, his offensive decline has been hurtful in several losses.
Adebayo is averaging 15.8 points on 42.8 percent shooting, off from 19.3 and 52.1 last season. “Bam is not really playing well,” TNT’s Shaquille O’Neal said before Adebayo’s back-to-back 10 assist games on Wednesday and Friday. “Taking a lot more threes. Field goal percentage is down. They’ve been too up and down. For them, everything has to go great [to win]. It looks to me like they’ve lost a little bit of their identity from the past. They’re not feared any more like they used to be feared.” The solution starts from extracting the best from Butler, Adebayo and Herro (who has certainly done his part this season) in the same game, against good teams – something that has happened only once in Miami’s last 10 games against teams that were in the playoffs last April. They’ll have three chances this upcoming week against the Celtics, Lakers and Suns.
“To me, Erik Spoelstra is the best coach in the game; it seems like he does the most with the least,” former ESPN analyst Jalen Rose said in a guest appearance in TNT’s studio on Tuesday. “But at some point, you need talent if you are going to win… They need Bam to be dominant.” Since last December, the Heat has won more games against playoff teams (six) when only Adebayo and Herro are playing as opposed to when Butler, Adebayo and Herro are playing (four). That obviously doesn’t suggest they’re better without Butler. But the trio must be better collectively, as they were Friday, to validate the front office’s continued faith in the core.
NEWS NOTE
Forward Nikola Jovic (who sprained his ankle in a Saturday workout) and guard Josh Richardson (feeling ill) did not travel to Toronto.
