The Hot Stove season is officially underway in Queens, and a major rumor has the New York Mets emerging as the favorites to sign left-handed starter Framber Valdez to a massive six-year contract reportedly worth $200 million. Valdez, an innings eater with a career groundball rate near 60%, certainly checks some boxes for a club desperate for rotation stability following a period of unprecedented payroll turnover.

However, a deal of this magnitude—paying an established pitcher into his late 30s—demands intense scrutiny. For a team attempting to navigate a competitive window while managing an aggressive payroll, every dollar must be spent efficiently. While Valdez has been a workhorse, a closer look at his profile reveals systemic red flags, chronic durability concerns, and mechanical fragility that make this potential deal a colossal risk. David Stearns and Steve Cohen should pump the brakes; the $200 million is better spent elsewhere.

Why the Valdez mega-deal is a recipe for disaster

The regression of the late season

Valdez’s biggest asset is his high innings count, which is crucial for a Mets staff looking to relieve pressure on the bullpen. Unfortunately, this strength is also his Achilles’ heel. In two of his last three seasons, Valdez has shown a severe regression in the late months, specifically entering August and September.

This pattern suggests that while he can handle the high workload early, the cumulative fatigue compromises his performance when the playoff race heats up. For a Mets team expected to be in contention, signing an ace who historically fades in the final two months is counterproductive to their core goal of securing a postseason berth.

Arsenal fragility: the curveball dependency

Valdez is not a pitcher who can consistently “pitch through” bad stuff. His success is dangerously tethered to the quality of a single pitch: his curveball. Internal analysis suggests a massive correlation between his curveball usage and his ERA. When his curveball usage drops (often due to fatigue or loss of feel), his average ERA balloons to high levels.

This lack of a true “Plan B” makes him a volatile asset in the high-pressure environment of New York. If he loses the feel for his secondary weapon, his primary pitch, the sinker, is easier to anticipate and gets hit harder, making him prone to explosive, high-run innings.

Durability: on the wrong side of the aging curve

At 32 years old, Valdez is on the precipice of the steep age-related decline that affects most starting pitchers. While he has been durable recently, committing $33 million annually through his age-38 season is extremely dangerous. Pitchers who rely on sink and movement, rather than pure velocity, tend to see their effectiveness drop sharply when their pitch efficiency wanes.

The Mets would be paying for Valdez’s decline years. This is a commitment that ties up crucial long-term payroll space and dramatically increases the probability of receiving poor production when the team needs him most—at the back end of Cohen’s competitive window. The smart move is to avoid long contracts for pitchers past their prime durability threshold.

Home run risk: groundball pitcher with high HR/FB

Valdez is primarily known as a groundball (GB) pitcher, which typically suppresses home runs. However, his profile carries a subtle but significant risk: he has a high propensity for Home Runs Per Fly Ball (HR/FB) against his sinker. This means that when hitters do manage to elevate his pitches—which even GB pitchers do—a high percentage of those fly balls leave the park.

This risk is magnified in a hitter-friendly division and in a park where wind can swirl. For a pitcher expected to be a staff anchor, this volatility makes him a potential liability in tight games, especially when facing deep lineups.

Contract and opportunity cost: overpaying for a non-ace

Simply put, Valdez is not a true ace in the modern sense, yet he is being valued as one in a weak free-agent market. There are no undisputed, generational aces available this offseason, and the Mets would be overpaying both in total money ($200 million) and in contract length (six years) out of desperation.

The opportunity cost is enormous. The Mets could acquire a pitcher like Michael King for a significantly cheaper, shorter-term deal and still allocate the remaining $130 million to trade for a controllable, younger ace (like Joe Ryan) or, more importantly, sign the elite offensive talent the club truly needs to jump into serious contention. Spending this much on Valdez is an inefficient use of resources that handcuffs the franchise’s flexibility for years to come.