Opening the Miami Heat mailbag…

…

“You said this stretch run before Thanksgiving would tell us a lot about the Heat this season, so where are we? 8-8, with 4 losses being coin flip games in final 10 seconds.”

I did say that. Specifically, I said we’ll know if the Heat are good enough to compete in the Eastern Confernece by turkey day. Well, the Heat are 8-8 after an up-and-down start.

The inconsistsed start is less confusing than you think. What if this is who the Heat are? Inconsistent. Jimmy Butler, at 35, will be in and out of the lineup. Tyler Herro is finding success in Miami’s new offense, but Bam Adebayo is having a harder time. Sometimes the Heat’s depth – built largely on unproven youth – is a strength. Sometimes it’s not.

The Heat are consistently inconsistent. That’s not rare for a .500 team. The Heat, through the first 16 games, feel like a .500 team.

Sure, they lost some games in the final minutes. They also gave up a 20-point lead in Charlotte after coming back from 22 points vs the Bucks. The Heat can make games interesting both ways.

I do think Miami’s best basketball is ahead of them. They are showing signs of improvement on both ends of the court and they are mostly healthy. Coach Erik Spoelstra is finding the right lineups and right buttons to push.

More importantly, though, they are clearly not at the same level as the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. Even if the Heat are a solid playoff team (I think they are), it would take something rather miraculous to beat one of those teams – likely the top two seeds in the East – in a playoff series and make the Eastern Conference finals.