In February, five-time All-Star and 2019 National League Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso ended a lengthy free agency drama by signing with his original team. The only team he had ever played for, the New York Mets.

Now, a new prediction by a leading baseball analyst sees Alonso betraying the Mets by signing a nine-figure free agent deal to land with the team that humiliated New York in the NL East pennant race this year — an eventuality that would only rub salt in the wounds of Mets fans, and the Mets organization, after a history-making collapse this season.

Alonso, who prior to this season ranked third on the Mets’ all-time home run list with 226, had an opt-out clause in his contract, allowing him to void the second year of the deal — leaving $24 million on the table — which is exactly what he did after the 2025 season, which ended with the Mets finishing with just 83 wins and missing the playoffs completely, after winning 89 the previous season and advancing to the NL Championship Series.

Alonso Linked to Usual Suspects, and Some Unusual Ones

Where Alonso will end up has, naturally, been a source of intense speculation ever since Alonso made it clear that he would enter free agency once again at the end of the Mets’ season.

The usual suspects such as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and of course the Mets themselves are often indicated as landing spots for Alonso, who will turn 31 on December 7, as well as some unexpected candidates. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds have also been reported as dark horses in the race to sign the career .857 OPS slugger — who broke the all-time Mets home run record, previously held by Darryl Strawberry, this year when he belted the 253rd of his career.

Alonso finished the season with 38 home runs, very possibly finishing his Mets career with a total of 264.

Alonso Prediction Will Anger Mets Fans

But it was otherwise a painful season for the Mets, as they suffered an epic collapse. On June 12 they were 5 1/2 games ahead of the second-place Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, with a 45-24 record — a pace that projected over 162 games would give them 106 wins.

The Mets then proceeded to win just 38 games of their last 93, watching the Phillies overtake them to finish in first place by a remarkable 13 games.

According to a prediction by baseball analyst Jordan Leandre of Just Baseball, it is those same Phillies who will tempt Alonso out of New York.

“There’s certainly a real scenario in which Alonso dons new pinstripes in 2026,” Leandre wrote, adding that the Phillies’ signing of Alonso would happen only if Philadelphia loses the NL’s top home run hitter Kyle Schwarber, who belted 56 in 2025.

Alonso Reportedly in Line For More than $200 Million

“A hitter like Schwarber is almost impossible to replace,” Leandre wrote. “Alonso, however, would be the ultimate consolation prize. Especially considering adding him would weaken the Mets’ lineup greatly, potentially widening the gap between these two clubs.”

But Alonso will not come at a bargain price. Another Just Baseball analyst, Ryan Finkelstein, projects a contract for Alonso with a high end of six years at $35 million per season, or $210 million before Alonso turns 37.

That contract, if it comes to pass, would make Alonso the Phillies’ second-highest-paid player on an annual basis, behind pitcher Zack Wheeler’s $42 million per year, and a step ahead of Bryce Harper at $27.5 million.

The sports business site Spotrac sees Alonso getting a somewhat leaner, but still highly lucrative contract of $28.2 million per year over four years, for a total of $113.2 million.