The New York Mets will face steep competition if they intend to reunite with Pete Alonso this offseason. Alonso is once again reaching for the stars with his contract desires, and this time around, the market for him seems stronger. He might not land the seven-year deal he desires, but a big-money contract could be in his future.
One of the Mets’ chief rivals in the Alonso sweepstakes is the Boston Red Sox. Their top decision maker, Craig Breslow, has made it clear that, in addition to bringing back Alex Bregman, upgrading his lineup’s pop is a top priority.
Alonso and first base seem to be the likely way they can do that, and as a result, they’ve non-tendered first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, who could now become an excellent bargain candidate for the Mets.
Red Sox might have just gifted the Mets a budget Pete Alonso replacement, opening a path for bigger spending elsewhere
Most non-tender candidates aren’t very exciting. Typically, they’re guys still under team control who have failed to develop, and their arbitration number, albeit relatively small, no longer makes them worth the roster space. Occasionally, you’ll find a player who once had a big year but was never able to recapture the magic. Even rarer is the player who has mostly been a consistent performer, but one hiccup ended up being his undoing. Nathaniel Lowe falls into the latter category.
On his resume are a World Series ring, a Gold Glove in 2023, and a Silver Slugger in 2022. Through the first four full seasons of his career, Lowe posted wRC+ numbers ranging between 114 on the low end and 143 in his Silver Slugger year. For his career, he owns a 117 wRC+.
A poor defender early on, Lowe began to improve, posting three outs above average in 2023 and seven outs above average in 2024. While not a star, everything seemed to be trending for him, solidifying himself as an above-average player on both sides of the ball.
Then last winter, things took a turn for the worse. The Texas Rangers dealt him to Mets’ division rival, the Washington Nationals, a place where, recently, careers go to die. As a member of the Nationals, Lowe struggled on both ends, posting a .665 and -5 outs above average.
The 30-year-old lefty-swinger was cut loose and freed from the District of Columbia disaster on August 16, quickly getting snapped up by the Red Sox. Down the stretch with Boston, he immediately returned to form, slashing .280/.370/.420 with two homers, and picking up one out above average in the field.
Given his track record, it’s entirely conceivable that it was Washington, and not Lowe, that was the problem. He is obviously on a different tier than Alonso, but by signing him to a cheap deal, the Mets could use their funds elsewhere.
The rotation is an easy place to attack. A different big free agent bat, such as Cody Bellinger, could be in the cards. They could get crazy in the trade market and target Corey Seager while moving Francisco Lindor to third base as an out-of-the-box way to follow through on David Stearns’ run prevention edict.
These aren’t all likely scenarios, but they are possible. A player like Lowe might not have a tremendously high ceiling, but he has a reasonably high floor despite last year’s struggles, and could allow the Mets to think big elsewhere, which, in the aggregate, might be the best path forward.
