Tarik Skubal feels like the perfect move for the New York Mets. Still, if the Detroit Tigers find a way to hold on to him, the Mets still have a clear path to upgrade a rotation that was league-average by results but thin on certainty.
New York starters posted a 4.13 ERA in 2025. That caused the team to part ways with long-time, respected pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. They won’t be able to improve their standing in the National League East without upgrades.
Kodai Senga’s 2025 was uneven and interrupted; he was even optioned during a rough June stretch before stabilizing later, a reminder that banking on 180 elite innings is a risk, not a plan. David Peterson and depth arms kept the floor respectable, but the ceiling lives in free agency.
The top of the open market offers multiple fits at different prices. Framber Valdez brings innings, ground balls, and October experience. MLB Trade Rumors pegs him at five years and around $150 million after another workhorse season pace and a track record of 6+ IP starts. For a club that needs volume and reliability, that profile tracks.
If New York prefers a slightly lower AAV with upside risk, Michael King is proven in New York and, when healthy, has ace-level stuff. MLBTR’s projection is four years, $80 million after a walk-year that flashed top-10 Cy Young form early before a pinched nerve cost him time; the repertoire still misses bats in a starter’s role.
Ranger Suarez is the mid-rotation stabilizer. Five years, ~$115 million is the MLBTR projection backed by three sub-4.00 ERA seasons in four years. He has elite ground-ball rates and a strong October resume. That’s the kind of contact-management profile that plays in Citi Field and shortens games for a leverage-heavy bullpen.
Shota Imanaga re-enters free agency after a hamstring-marred 2025. The projection lands around three years, ~$45 million. He was an All-Star caliber arm pre-injury in 2024 and still logged meaningful innings last year, though the HR bug is real—Citi helps that. He comes with the qualifying offer tag, though, so that also costs a draft pick.
There’s the wild card in Tatsuya Imai. The NPB ace will be 27 in May, coming off a 1.92 ERA/163.2 IP season in Japan. MLBTR thinks six years in the $150 million can land him. If the Mets want youthful prime without trading prospects, this is the cleanest swing. MLB Trade Rumors
Skubal is the prize if the Tigers can’t extend him. But if he stays, the Mets can still build a top staff by pairing one of Valdez/Suarez with a King/Imanaga tier add and letting Senga slot into a healthier, matchup-proof top three. The money’s real, but so is the NL East arms race.
