WARRIORS ALERT: Critics warn Golden State’s defense is crumbling as the offense stalls, leaving fans worried the splashy squad might be exposed in high-stakes matchups..ll

Film breakdown: Nuggets crush Warriors, 129-104 | Golden State Of Mind

Nothing strikes fear into the hearts of Golden State Warriors fans than a notification from a beat reporter stating that Steph Curry will not be available to play. That fear is multiplied when it’s a game against a Western Conference powerhouse such as the Denver Nuggets, who, without having to gameplan for Curry, visibly had an easier time deploying conventional defensive schemes against a team whose offense revolves around someone who isn’t even in the same area code.

Naturally, the next player on the offense’s pecking order would be Jimmy Butler, designated as the only Warrior other than Curry who can create his own shot and use the threat of creating his own shot to generate advantages. That is a fact the Nuggets were also aware of, and therefore, did not waste time in making sure that Butler’s shot-creation reps were limited, even at the risk of playing disadvantaged defense on the backline. In simpler terms: the Nuggets were fine with anyone not named Jimmy Butler taking a shot.

As such, look at what the Nuggets immediately do upon Butler getting the ball on one side of the floor:

 

Swinging the ball against a defense in rotation until it finds its way to an open man is, by every tenet in the Basketball 101 book, sound offense. Brandin Podziemski gets an exceptional look with plenty of time to shoot the ball, but he misses. Such is basketball life, at times. The miss doesn’t take away from the excellence of the process.

However, there is also an equally valid school of thought that, considering the circumstances, every miss spiritually feels like a 10-point swing, especially when process such as the example above does not grow on trees without the proverbial sun that everyone and everything revolves around. That was true of every open three-point look missed and every missed point-blank layup, whereafter the Nuggets took advantage of a defense that found it difficult to get set. The numbers proved that assertion to be true: the Nuggets scored a blistering 124.1 points per 100 half-court possessions.

Some say that the key to a good defense is having a good — if not better — offense. The Warriors’ difficulty in stopping the Nuggets was in huge part due to them not being able to score consistently without their fulcrum. Again, in the possession below, the Nuggets have no qualms sending an extra defender toward Butler when he receives the ball on the left side:

 

Take note that the set above is split action, an action typically run for Curry. Although Moses Moody has previously shown he can be a Curry substitute to a certain degree, it still isn’t as good as the original product — nor should Moody be blamed for trying to approximate a role that is built for Curry. Despite Draymond Green’s handoff and rescreen, Moody finds it difficult to shake off Jamal Murray, who contests Moody’s shot and forces the miss.

With Curry not being there to save the day, as he previously did against the Nuggets with his 42-point performance in San Francisco, the Warriors only had defense to fall back on. But even that was soon compromised by the unrelenting attack of the Nuggets’ offense, spearheaded by Murray’s 23 points on 89.3% True Shooting, Nikola Jokić‘s almost-triple-double (29-9-9), and Aaron Gordon’s 18 points. Perhaps there was nothing the Warriors could’ve done to stifle an offense that is off to a blistering start: an offensive rating of 122.8 in non-garbage time, the best in the league, per Cleaning The Glass.

However, what Steve Kerr referenced after the game as the need for “some fire in the belly” may be a thinly veiled shot at the lack of defensive urgency to play on a string, rotate, and take matchups personal. Some defensive possessions to highlight include the one below, starting with an image frozen at a specific point:

 

Virtually four players are in the paint as a result of a Murray drive. Trayce Jackson-Davis steps up to help, with what looks like a late sink by Podziemski against Jonas Valančiūnas. Jonathan Kuminga — perhaps seeing Valančiūnas compromising Podziemski underneath the rim — is compelled to pinch in deeper in the paint, without much concern for Christian Braun (17.6% on threes this year, despite being a career 37.7% shooter on low volume) up top and Peyton Watson (25% on threes this season, career 32.6% on threes) in the weak-side corner.

Seeing his open options, Murray kicks out to Braun up top. Kuminga — being caught in no-man’s land but having done so because of a need to help the one helping the helper — tries to close out against Braun, but to no avail. Upon further inspection, Buddy Hield recovers against Murray around the handoff after falling behind, allowing Jackson-Davis to recover toward Valančiūnas and providing Podziemski relief. However, Kuminga’s small stunt toward the basket increases his close-out distance against Braun:

 

On another possession, where it is Valančiūnas who finds himself open for a three. Before this made shot, the Lithuanian center (a career 34% shooter from beyond the arc) had zero made threes on a mere two attempts. Being a slightly below-average long-distance shooter, the scouting report on Valančiūnas would probably state that hard close-outs aren’t warranted.

Again, a picture frozen in time to serve as the setup:

 

With Jackson-Davis doubling Murray, Podziemski showing help, Kuminga once again splitting the difference between two players (Braun and Valančiūnas), and Will Richard staying close to Cam Johnson (the sole bona-fide spot-up shooter). Again, perhaps informed by the scouting report that may have Braun and Valančiūnas classified as virtual non-shooting threats, Kuminga deems it necessary to stay put in the paint, compounded by the fact that Podziemski is helping off of his man in the dunker spot (Watson).

When Murray kicks out to Valančiūnas mid-air, Podziemski — thinking that Murray has committed to a shot — reverts toward Watson in order to box him out, while Kuminga finds himself once again with a long close-out. While Valančiūnas does not warrant any sort of hard close-out, Kuminga’s deep starting point, coupled with a slight hesitation to commit to a close-out, allows Valančiūnas time to line his shot up for a three that would be his first of the season.

 

And so, we return to the original premise of process creating good looks, which one could argue the Nuggets did in the two possessions above. Is it simply a case of mediocre defense? Perhaps, and one could also make a solid argument that it was indeed something that Kuminga, Podziemski, and others could’ve done better on, not just during the aforementioned situations but also during several other defensive possessions. But again, such is life. Superstars get injured and/or sick. Teams face other teams that are just that much better. A few shots that could’ve ended in a different way would’ve swung momentum toward the other direction. There’s only so much the Warriors could’ve controlled in a game that, for all intents and purposes, was a schedule loss.

But one can’t also help but think that so much could’ve been done better. That has been an all-too-familiar feeling over the last few seasons. This one is eerily veering toward that same trajectory: a season of shouldas, wouldas, and couldas.

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