Getty

New York Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns

It’s often said that where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Well, the offseason air around Queens is getting pretty thick.

The speculation surrounding a possible New York Mets trade for Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has reached a near-constant simmer. But is there really a fire burning beneath all that smoke — or just the usual offseason heat from talking heads and Twitter threads?

Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report thinks there must be something to it. In a Monday report making “6 Bold MLB 2025-26 Offseason Predictions,” Kelly suggests that Detroit will indeed trade Skubal to the Mets.

MLB Analysts Tab Mets as ‘Most Obvious Suitor’ for Detroit Ace Tarik Skubal

Kelly cites a recent report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, who stated that sources indicate there is a “close to $250 million” gap between what Skubal is seeking in a contract extension and what the Tigers are currently prepared to offer him. While Kelly contends that Tigers owner Chris Ilitch should just “spend whatever exorbitant amount it takes to keep the top pitcher in the sport in Motown,” $250 million is quite the gap, and according to Cody Stavenhagen, Tigers beat writer for The Athletic, the two sides appear to be too far apart.

“From all the signs, from all we know, the idea of an extension probably just isn’t happening, and I think that’s the more important takeaway regardless of whatever number, whatever framing is kind of in some of these other headlines,” Stavenhagen said on the “Tiger Territory” podcast.

So it could just be a matter of how long Detroit wants to wait before trading the left-handed starter, who is expected to win his second straight AL Cy Young Award after posting a 13-6 record with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts in 195.1 innings. As for who Skubal should be traded to, Kelly has some thoughts on that.

“The team that would make the most sense for Skubal in an offseason trade is the New York Mets,” he wrote. “Not only do they have an owner in Steve Cohen who will probably be willing to meet the asking price of Skubal and agent Scott Boras next offseason, but they have a major need for an ace in 2026 and pieces that could be of interest to the Tigers in return.”

Stavenhagen likewise said he feels the Mets make sense as a potential trade partner.

“Just looking at some of the farm systems across the game, I think the Mets do strike me as the most obvious suitor,” he said.

Stavenhagen went on to suggest a package of pitchers Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, along with middle infielder Jett Williams, the Nos. 3-5 prospects in the Mets system, which Stavenhagen said he believes would make “a pretty good baseline” for what the Tigers could get for Skubal.

In an episode of SNY-TV’s “The Mets Pod,” Connor Rogers and Joe DeMayo held a mock trade negotiation to discuss potential packages for Skubal. Rogers, playing the role of the Mets front office, coincidentally offered that very package, but only if the Mets are guaranteed that they can sign Skubal to an extension. As a rental, he would be leery about dealing both pitchers, knowing that Skubal could walk at the end of the season.

Insiders Suggest Package of Prospects Tong, Sprout, Williams for Tarik Skubal

So where does that leave the Mets? Somewhere between opportunity and overreach.

Skubal isn’t just another name on the market — he’s the kind of arm that changes a franchise’s temperature overnight. He’s 28, a lefty with elite command and a fastball that plays anywhere. Add that to a rotation desperate for identity and leadership, and it’s no wonder the Mets are being connected to him in every whisper and think piece.

But big swings have consequences, especially when you’re still rebuilding the lower half of your farm system. Tong, Sproat, and Williams represent the kind of internal capital that could sustain success instead of chasing it. And while Cohen’s checkbook can fix many problems, it can’t replace years of development if the wrong prospects go out the door.

Still, this is the kind of rumor that refuses to fade quietly. It’s logical, it’s flashy, and it fits the modern Mets narrative — a franchise trying to balance its billionaire ambition with the slow burn of baseball reality. If the Tigers truly can’t bridge that $250 million divide, someone will eventually come knocking.

Maybe that someone wears orange and blue.

Until then, it’s all speculation — smoke without fire. But in Queens, they’ve learned that sometimes, the smoke is the first sign that something big is about to burn.

Dave Benson is a veteran writer with over three decades of journalism experience covering sports primarily in the St. Louis metropolitan area. Dave is also a licensed English teacher and spent several years teaching at the middle school level. More about Dave Benson