The New York Mets haven’t been shy about handing qualifying offers to free agents after the season ended. In the club’s history, only Neil Walker and Marcus Stroman have accepted it. Both had reason to.

The qualifying offer is only available once in a player’s career. Once he receives the offer, he can never get it again. A bit of a hassle for free agents because signing a player who rejected the QO has consequences for the new ball club and benefits for his old team. We saw exactly how it hurt Pete Alonso last year in free agency. The same reason the Mets might’ve ultimately passed on a player like Nick Pivetta (it would’ve cost them two more draft picks because they signed Juan Soto), teams will overlook adding one of the dozen or so players who turn down the offer.

Only one free agent on the Mets is a reasonable qualifying offer candidate to sign to a $22.02 million deal for 2026. In case you forgot, Edwin Diaz never received a QO his last time free agency arrived. That’s because the Mets struck a deal with him first. Already a limited market because not every team is willing to pay a closer close to $20 million AAV, the QO penalties hanging over Diaz’s free agency can further help the Mets to retain him.

If the Mets aren’t able to extend Edwin Diaz before free agency, they have an ace in the hole with the qualifying offer ball and chain

Qualifying offer penalties get worse based on the amount your team spent the year prior and how many QO rejectees you add to your roster. For example, 8 teams last year were in the threshold where signing just one QO rejectee would cost them $1 million in international bonus slot money and a pair of draft picks. The Mets were one of those clubs. They forfeited the two picks when they signed Soto.

It’s a matter of preference for most ball clubs. What’s more valuable: winning now or drafting some college or high school kids as a part of your future? The more established player tends to always be the better buy. But we know how short the pockets are of many MLB owners.

The $22+ million is more than Diaz can realistically get as his AAV from the Mets or anyone else. We’d have to guess his biggest contract demand is less about a raise and more about some length in the deal. His current deal, if he opted in, would take him through the 2027 season.

Because Diaz would have gotten a QO after the 2022 season but never had the chance because the Mets were wise to sign him first, it’s easy to forget he is eligible for it this time around after opting out. Diaz has yet to officially declare himself a free-agent-to-be but it’s clear the current contract is outdated. A four or five-year deal seems necessary to keep him in Queens.