Tim Britton of The Athletic put together a fascinating story on the New York Mets and different payroll scenarios for the 2026 season. One scenario had the Mets running into the season with a $244 million payroll to get out from under any penalties. Another had them at $284 million where they don’t lose their draft position. Finally, he had a scenario where they spend $340 million again.
He came to a conclusion: there’s really only one choice.
It’s going to be really hard for the Mets to compete with anything short of a $340 million payroll in 2026
Even at $284 million, the Mets look light. Britton suggests trading for Tyler Soderstrom to replace Pete Alonso. The rest of the lineup are guys we’re familiar with and it includes Luisangel Acuna at second base and Tyrone Taylor in center field. This isn’t appetizing until we see Jett Williams and Carson Benge replace each.
His proposed lineup has Brandon Nimmo batting third in left field, Mark Vientos batting cleanup as the DH, and Soderstrom balancing the lineup before Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty follow. The rest of the team isn’t much different. Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai joins the long list of question marks. THe rest of the rotation is predictable.
The bullpen is able to retain Edwin Diaz, but not much else of significance is done. The team relies on A.J. Minter and Brooks Raley as their next best relievers. Then there’s Drew Smith (coming off of Tommy John surgery) and Huascar Brazoban to round out what he calls their “top five in the bullpen.”
It’s a much different look with $340 million. The Mets re-sign Alonso in this scenario and keep Jeff McNeil (this is a bit more debatable). Shane Bieber is the starting pitcher they add. It’s not quite the addition we’re dreaming of, is it? The bullpen is vastly improved, though. Shelby Miller and Brad Keller replace Smith and Brazoban in the top five in the bullpen. Smith and Brazoban are there, just moved back in importance.
Regardless of what the Mets do, all plans seem to include crossing your fingers for major improvements from players under contract. Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga need to deliver. Alvarez, Baty, and Vientos need to be consistent enough to prevent the bottom of the order from becoming a black hole.
As Britton mentions, it’s a crucial stage for the Mets who should avoid any significant commitments while they await the arrival of their next group of young players. By the end of 2026, we should have a better idea of who’s for real, who needs more time, and who isn’t going to be much help.
