Taylor Swift, movie theater messiah?
The pop star is returning to cinemas with “The Official Release Party of a Showgirl,” which is tracking a debut of $35 million to $40 million over the weekend. Those projected ticket sales are significant considering “Showgirl” was announced just two weeks ago and is entering theaters with minimal promotion outside of Swift’s social media feeds. However, any box office boost might be short lived; “Release Party” is only slated to play screens for the weekend of Oct. 3 through 5.
“The Official Release Party of a Showgirl” should earn Swift her second consecutive No. 1 box office debut following her prior theatrical release, 2023’s successful “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” ($93 million debut). This new venture isn’t a traditional movie, or a concert film like “The Eras Tour,” but instead an 89-minute event with a new music video and behind-the-scenes footage. The “release party” — for which Swift says dancing is “optional but very much encouraged” — coincides with the singer’s 12th studio album, “The Life of a Showgirl,” which drops on Oct. 3. A self-proclaimed fan of numerology, Swift put tickets on sale for $12, which is above the average national price but way less than expensive than major cities like New York City or Los Angeles.
Swift looks to take the box office crown over two movie stars. Dwayne “the Rock” Johnson’s sports drama “The Smashing Machine” is aiming for $8 million to $15 million in its debut while Leonardo DiCaprio’s comedic action epic “One Battle After Another” is targeting $10 million to $11 million in its second weekend of release.
“The Smashing Machine” marks a departure from the family-friendly fare that turned Johnson into a household name. In a rare dramatic performance, Johnson plays wrestler Mark Kerr, a champion in the early days of MMA fighting who made a career comeback after battling substance abuse. “The Smashing Machine,” which cost $50 million, is the solo directing debut of Benny Safdie, who is best known for collaborating with his older brother Josh on films like “Uncut Gems” and “Good Time.”
Meanwhile, the industry will be closely watching the sophomore outing of “One Battle After Another,” which topped the box office last weekend but requires staying power — and lots of it — to justify its outsized budget. Glowing word-of-mouth and demand for Imax and other premium large format screens could help the film stick around in theaters. “One Battle After Another,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio as an ex-revolutionary on the run, has generated $24 million domestically and $53 million globally against a production budget above $130 million. Since ticket sales are typically split 50-50 between studios and theater operators, “One Battle After Another” requires roughly $300 million to break even theatrically.
Elsewhere, Disney’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” re-release is targeting $3 million to $4 million from 2,100 theaters. The studio is bringing James Cameron’s $2 billion sequel back to the big screen ahead of the third installment, “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” which opens in December. Audiences will be treated to an exclusive clip of “Fire and Ash” after the screenings of “The Way of Water.” Pandora beckons!
