Ben Rice just torched the Orioles with two home runs to close the regular season. He just completed a season that has everyone believing he is the New York Yankees’ first baseman of the future.

But not the near future.

When the Yankees open the Wild Card on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium against Boston’s ace lefty Garrett Crochet, Rice is all but certain to be on the bench.

The Yankees manager will sit one of his hottest bats at first pitch. In a short series, this is survival over sentiment. The matchup demands it, and the plan likely shifts Rice to first bat off the bench once Crochet exits. 

Yankees Lineup vs. Garrett Crochet, Game 1 Context

The Red Sox are handing the ball to Crochet for the opener in the Bronx, a lefty who’s been a problem for New York all year. Boston took the season series and, when Crochet was on the mound, he piled strikeouts and contained the Yankees’ damage. That’s a blueprint for success against a lineup built on power like the Yankees.

So, Boone, who said Austin Wells would start behind the plate and Paul Goldschmidt at first base, has to trust the matchups.

He also has history to go on.

Ben Rice vs. Garrett Crochet Head-to-Head Numbers

Rice is 1-for-8 lifetime off Crochet with a lone double and no walks. He has a .125/.125/.250 line with plenty of swing-and-miss, not much lift, and minimal leverage against the Red Sox lefty.  Coming in hot doesn’t change how the matchup plays, but it does change how and when  Boone uses him. The practical move is to hold Rice for the first right-handed reliever and hunt a mistake when Boston’s bullpen takes over.

Austin Wells vs. Garrett Crochet

Austin Wells is also a left-handed bat, but his track record against Crochet is meaningfully better: 2-for-9 with a double and a home run, plus four strikeouts. It isn’t pretty, but it’s proof he’s squared Crochet before, and that matters in a knife-edge opener. Besides, Wells has caught most of Max Fried’s starts this season, and Boone wants to buckle down the defense.

Given the way managers script October, Wells starting at catcher while Rice waits to ambush a right-hander is the smart plan.

October isn’t a time for vibes. Crochet has throttled the Yankees enough to force conservative decisions on contact profiles and handedness. New York can still get Rice into this game, and probably will, but the first at-bats likely belong to hitters who’ve either seen Crochet better or can at least force deeper counts to chase him earlier. When a bullpen game breaks out, Rice’s bat plays loud in a hurry. That’s how you manage a best-of-three.