The MVP race in the American League has been a two-player competition for months. New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge and Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh are neck-and-neck as candidates. However, both players have five games left to make their case for the award. Despite how historic Raleigh’s season has been, Judge is the clear-cut option in MVP conversations.

New York secured a playoff berth with a walk-off win against the Chicago White Sox. The Mariners secured their spot as well, setting up a potential playoff matchup between the two stars. Unfortunately for Raleigh, the MVP is a regular season award. His production would have him as the clear winner in a lot of seasons. However, Judge’s body of work blows his out of the water.

Seattle is back in the playoffs for the first time in more than 20 years. While a lot of that success is because of Raleigh’s dominance at the plate, a lot of it comes from the players around him. The catcher has been great, but his standout season in 2025 is the outlier in his career, not the norm. Judge, on the other hand, has been consistently dominant for the past five seasons.

Judge has won the AL MVP award twice in the last three seasons. With Shohei Ohtani playing for the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League, very few players stand between the Yankees’ captain and the distinction. Raleigh is the challenger this season, but he will fall just a bit short compared to Judge. Despite the gap between them, the voter figure to be split almost evenly.

Raleigh’s accomplishments will be remembered in record books for years to come. However, his production is not good enough to unseat Judge as the AL MVP winner.

Judge’s pure numbers make him the easy choice

Raleigh has a good chance to catch Judge’s single-season home run record. If he can hit five more in five games, the record will be his. The Mariners would love for him to get there, and it would make his argument much stronger. However, home runs are not the end-all all be-all when it comes to deciding who the MVP is. Comparing their statistics to one another, Judge crushes Raleigh.

Raleigh leads Judge in home runs, RBIs, and stolen bases in 2025. However, that is where his advantages end. The Yankees All-Star has better slashing numbers and a monstrous OPS of 1.121. Judge has had his struggles at the plate throughout the regular season. Despite his lulls, his numbers are leaps and bounds better than any other players, including Raleigh’s.

Raleigh’s home runs and the fact that he is a switch-hitter have garnered a lot of attention. If both players were put to a blind test, though, most would pick Judge, who is better almost across the board. That distinction gives Judge an edge among voters, who will lean more into the statistics to make their decision. New York’s leader is simply too dominant for Raleigh to stand up to.

Judge’s team is more successful than Raleigh’s

The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners are two of the top teams in the AL. Both squads are headed to the playoffs, where each could make a deep run. Despite that and their similar records, the Yankees’ success this season trounces the Mariners’. A strong finish to the season could change the narrative, but New York gets the edge over Seattle for now.

When it comes to how important each player is to their team, Judge wins in a landslide. The outfielder has paced the Yankees down the stretch with dominant weeks at the plate. New York goes as he does, no matter how good or bad the rest of the team is around him. Raleigh, on the other hand, is not as vital to the Mariners’ dominance in the 2025 regular season.

The true impact of each player will be revealed in the postseason. However, voters do not care what MVP candidates do when the playoffs start. That may work in Judge’s favor if his postseason struggles come back to roost. Raleigh is part of a well-rounded offense that has been good all year. Judge, on the other hand, has to be at his best for the Yankees to consistently succeed.

The hype around Raleigh is not enough to push him past Judge

Raleigh is ready to lead his team on a deep playoff run. Throughout the regular season, he has put on a show, helping the Mariners revive their offense and remain competitive. His exploits have skyrocketed him into the national spotlight, making him one of the more popular players in the entire league. Unfortunately, the fans are not the ones voting for the AL MVP award.

Raleigh has already received awards from some MLB experts. However, they are more likely to be swayed as an individual by what he has done. He is a worthy MVP candidate and would be the favorite in most seasons. Despite everything going in his favor, he ran into one of the few competitors capable of beating him in the AL MVP race. The voters will prove that this fall.

As players, Raleigh and Judge are two of the most entertaining stars the league has to offer. Seattle was lucky to get the catcher on a reasonable contract before he took off. The Mariners have done a lot to support Raleigh’s AL MVP candidacy. If he won it, he would be the first Seattle player to do so since Ichiro Suzuki. Unfortunately for him, Judge is by far the better candidate.